An active weather week is ahead across the US as we continue to transition into the winter season. We’re tracking the most impactful weather events that will affect the nation this week.
This is your 5 Things to Watch for this week.
2018-19 Winter Forecast:
Are you in for a cold and snowy winter or a wet and dry one? We discuss what you can expect this winter season region-by-region and take your through the science behind our forecast. Be sure to check out the WeatherOptics forecast this evening at weatheroptics.net.
Severe Weather Outbreak:
A severe weather outbreak is becoming increasingly likely today into tonight across the Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys. As a well-developed area of low pressure associated with an upper-level trough swing east across the middle of the country, that and several other ingredients such as instability and wind shear will fuel the formation of dangerous thunderstorms. These storms will threaten the region with primarily damaging winds and localized tornadoes.
The threat will begin this afternoon with a broken line of thunderstorms, some of which will be supercells, spanning from southern Missouri through northeastern Texas. As the afternoon progresses, those storms will track in a general eastward direction. By the evening, the storms will organize into a line while transiting more into a damaging wind event. By this point in time, the storms will have reached the Mississippi River. The threat will not be over, however. It will extend into an overnight issue across the northern Gulf Coast states and the Tennessee River Valley, although the risk should not be as substantial.
Election Day Storms:
Rain and thunderstorms associated with Monday’s severe weather outbreak will continue to move east, and on Tuesday (which is Election Day) the East Coast will be at risk for the feisty storms. From New York City through Birmingham, Alabama, strong to severe storms, containing damaging winds or tornadoes, will be possible during a brief time of the day. The key point about these storms is that they will only take place during a portion of a day, so it will not be a washout, but they still may make it difficult for you to make it to the polls. Elsewhere, several hours of rain is forecast across much of the Northeast, while rain and even a few snow showers impact the Great Lakes and upper Midwest.
The models are beginning to suggest that a new storm system may form late-week while interacting with cold air, which may lead to the first snow for parts of the country. From the central Plains through the Midwest and into the interior Northeast, the risk for snowfall will be elevated between Thursday and Saturday thanks to this new low pressure. Of course when forecasting snow this far out in time, the certainty of forecast confidence is low. So while snow appears to be possible, it is not guaranteed. It is also way too early to discuss snowfall totals, but the best chance for any substantial snow looks to be in the mountains of northern New England at this time. Some peaks may receive over 4-6 inches.
Cold Air Intrusion:
The intrusion of cold air will gradually take place across most of the country this week behind the storm system that’s bringing the severe weather to the East. Early week, the Northwest, northern Plains, and Midwest will experience the below average temperatures. By the end of the week, however, it will be the nation’s turn to experience the chill, with the exception of the West Coast and South Florida. Widespread temperatures of 10-20 degrees below normal will dominate the country, which translates to highs generally into the 20s, 30, 40s, and 50s. This temperature pattern looks to remain a dominant feature through much of November, so if you don’t like the cold, you’re out of luck.