Another active week of weather is in store for the United States, as multiple weather systems move through while fall-like temperatures intrude the central US.
This is your 5 Things to Watch This Week.
An area to watch in the Atlantic, Invest 98L, is worth a look in regard to potential US impacts. This area of disturbed weather is actually associate with then-Hurricane Florence. As the post-tropical cyclone moved off the New England coast last week, two cyclones broke off. The one that moved south and is currently well off the Southeast coast is the one we’re monitoring for potential development.
The National Hurricane Center gives this invest a moderate (40%) chance of development within the next 5 days. If it were to develop, it would likely be a tropical depression or tropical storm before it possibly impacts the Outer Banks and surrounding areas midweek. Either way, gusty winds and showers will be the main concern. If it becomes named, the next name on the list is Michael.
Stay tuned for an article later today on Invest 98L and don’t forget to read the Sunday Storm, which goes in-depth into the latest on the tropics.
A new storm system moving across the Northern Tier will be responsible for severe weather in the Midwest on Tuesday, then the Northeast on Wednesday. In all, 130-million people will be at risk for damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. This severe weather setup will be driven by a line of scattered storms that form on Tuesday and persist into Wednesday. The overall pattern does not scream an outbreak of severe weather, but nonetheless a reasonable risk exists and these storms will definitely need to be monitored if any warnings are issued. Behind the storms will be a cold front, which will usher in cooler, fall-like temperatures.
A sharp cold front, which will be driving the severe weather in the Midwest and Northeast midweek, will be responsible for a sharp decline in temperatures across a large part of the nation. Temperatures as much as 30 degrees below average will affect the Northwest and northern Plains on Monday and eventually the entire central US midweek. This will allow for actually high temperatures to range from the 80s at the Gulf Coast to the 50s in the Dakotas. A brief, subtle cool down will even affect the Northeast before warmer air intrudes by the weekend. Cooler than normal temperatures will remain dominant across much of the nation’s midsection for the foreseeable future, however.
The storm track will gradual become more active across the western US as we transition from summer to winter. Mix in moisture with cold, freezing air, and that is the perfect recipe for snow. This may be the case across portions of the higher elevations of the Northwest later this week and into next week, especially across the northern Rocky Mountains. Numerous storm systems will move in from southwestern Canada. As they run into the cold air, that will allow for snow to fall across some of the mountain peaks. Some of the model guidance through the next 10 days even suggests some locations receive over a foot of snow. Winter is definitely on the way, folks.
Midwest Flood Threat:
It’s been rather wet this month in the Midwest thanks to an active weather pattern. As numerous storm systems return to the region beginning late-week, that will ramp up the risk for flash flooding across similar areas that have already experienced flooding within the past 2 weeks. The first storm will threaten parts of the region, especially the upper Midwest, with heavy rain on Saturday. As that clears out Sunday, a secondary storm may then move in Sunday into Monday before a third potential cyclone ushers in another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms next Wednesday into Thursday. By the time all is said and done, some locations will likely receive rainfall amounts in excess of half a foot.