It’s Easter Sunday and April fools’ Day, but Mother Nature happens to have some tricks up her sleeve. Unfortunately, those tricks ain’t no joke and snow is ahead Sunday into Monday from portions of the Central Plains through the Northeast.
This Sunday, our upper-level disturbance that will be responsible for producing the snow will eject into the Central Plains. This will bring a light to moderate snow Sunday morning across southeastern Wyoming, northeastern Colorado, much of Nebraska, and possibly extreme-northern Kansas. There may also be a few pockets of wintry mix that break out in Kansas and Oklahoma. This will be a quick-hitting system, so by the afternoon, the snow will already have moved out of much of Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming, and Colorado. That snow will then move east while intensifying. These higher snowfall rates will allow for most of the falling snow to accumulate despite the marginal temperatures and the high, April sun angle. A moderate to heavy snow is expected Sunday afternoon in northern Missouri into central Illinois. Some wintry weather may also impact extreme-southern Iowa while sleet and/or freezing rain possibly falls in southern Missouri.
Then into the overnight hours of Monday, our storm will continue to zoom to the east. The fast-movement of this storm will prevent any significant snowfall totals from happening. A moderate to heavy snow is expected across central Illinois while snow falls throughout the overnight time frame in central Indiana and much of Ohio, so this snow event will occur north of the Ohio River. Snow will also move into the Mid-Atlantic. A moderate to perhaps heavy snow is expected across most of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northern Maryland, extreme-northern West Virginia, the Lower-Hudson River Valley in New York, Long Island, and southeastern New England. For many of these places, the air will be dry, so the radar may show snow falling, but it’s evaporating before reaching the ground. This is called virga. This will delay the onset of the precipitation to up to two hours. By then, the air column will saturate and snow will begin to fall. We factored this into our snowfall forecast below.
As we get into Monday, snow will be falling in the morning in eastern Pennsylvania, much of New Jersey, the Lower-Hudson River Valley in New York, and all of southern New England. A few lingering snow showers are also possible around the Mason-Dixon Line. There is the chance Washington, DC experiences a snow shower Monday morning, but it will not accumulate. The area where additional accumulations are expected on Monday will primarily be in southern New England. Then by 4pm Monday, all of the snow will clear out of southeastern New England.
This snowfall forecast is challenging, like most we’ve had this winter. We’re expecting a widespread 2 to 4 inches of snow to fall from the Central Plains through the Northeast. There may be a pocket of 5 to 8 inches in south-central Pennsylvania, but we think snowfall totals of that magnitude will be too isolated to include in our forecast map below. Now if the snow is forecast to fall at night, then accumulations on most/all surfaces, like roads, is expected. If the snow is expected to fall during the day, it will be more difficult for accumulation, especially in southeastern New England. Accumulation may become confined to the colder and grassy surfaces, thus keeping roads mainly wet and slushy.