Author

Joshua Feldman

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Based on National Hurricane Center climatological data from 1966-2009, there are two named storms during the average hurricane season through August 1. Tropical Storm Chris was the third named storm this year, putting the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season slightly in above-average territory. However, this small lead on the average could soon diminish. No tropical threats loom on the horizon as summer heads into August, less than four weeks away from the season’s most active period. Statistically, there is a sharp increase in tropical activity between late August and mid-September. Until then, prospects for a short term uptick in activity in the Atlantic basin look meager, as conditions remain hostile for tropical cyclone development. The first and foremost ingredient necessary for tropical development is a wide swath of sea-surface temperatures of at least 26°C, or 78.8°F.  These temperatures are the bare minimum required to support enough condensation for tropical cyclone development.…

A train of tropical moisture will chug along tracks setup over the Eastern US by the mutual flows of an impenetrable Bermuda High over the western Atlantic Ocean and a potent upper-level low over the Ohio Valley and Mid-South this week.  The resurgence of the tropical pattern will bring days of flooding rain just as the one that already happened last week. The upper-level low will drag an axis of torrential rain eastward until crashing into the Bermuda High midweek. Thereafter it will stall and bring days of heavy rains to the Atlantic Seaboard in a pattern identical to that which recently inundated parts of the Northeast with major flooding. The upper-level low will plow southeastwards toward the East Coast early in the week. A corridor of widespread torrential rain will develop over the Ohio Valley, western New York and western Pennsylvania southward to the Gulf Coast between Monday and…

The train of tropical moisture that has inundated parts of the Northeast with historic flooding this week will derail after a cold front collides into the moisture flow Friday. This derailment will result in an explosion of strong thunderstorm clusters Friday afternoon and evening before clearing this weekend. Strong wind gusts, large hail, and even a brief tornado will be possible. Unfortunately, recently inundated cities along the Susquehanna River are expected to be impacted by these thunderstorms. Throughout last week, a strong Bermuda High over the western Atlantic used the East Coast of the US as a freight line to ship vast quantities of moisture from the Tropical Atlantic. Heat alongside this tropical moisture has caused vast quantities of instability to develop over the Northeast this week. Instability will be even stronger Friday as the train of tropical moisture accelerates with the approach of an upper-level low pressure system. Temperatures…