Author

Joshua Feldman

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Emerging from the rain-forests of Central America with relatively little notice, Tropical Storm Michael is poised to be the second hurricane to make landfall along the continental US this hurricane season. Global ensembles first detected this threat last week, but deterministic models like the GFS and the ECMWF did not hint at such tropical activity surviving the journey to the Gulf Coast until a radical swing over the weekend. Suddenly, with less than four days of lead time, the northern Gulf Coast will soon find themselves scrambling to make preparations ahead of a significant wind and flooding event. Michael will be the third and likely most severe named tropical cyclone of the Atlantic hurricane season to impact the Gulf Coast. After making landfall, Michael will soak parts of the South still recovering from the historic flooding from Hurricane Florence less than one month ago. This time around, however, the East…

The pumpkin patch might become a tad toasty this week. The start of October typically signals the arrival of crisp, sweet, comfortable air ideal for sweaters and for most seasonal outdoor activities.  That won’t be the case this year. Thanks to an expanding subtropical ridge, summer’s heat will rebound northward across much of the eastern two-thirds of the US. Perhaps a trip to the beach would be more appropriate to kick-off this October. The subtropical ridge was already dominating the weather across most of the country. However, its high was centered just south enough over the Southeast US for the jet stream to settle over the northern third of the country, which brought typical fall weather to the northern US for several days.  Now the ridge is expanding, pushing summer-like air northward. Why would a subtropical ridge intensify in autumn? Rosa’s remnants are pummeling the southwestern US with up to a…

Riverbeds will roar to life early this week across the dry desert of the Southwestern US as remnants of Hurricane Rosa trek northeastward. Trailing Rosa will be an upper-level system that will only make matters worse. It will produce rainfall over central and southern California, enhance rainfall over the Southwest, and keep rain chances in place after Rosa’s remnants eject into the Rocky Mountains. Conditions will therefore be ideal for a widespread flash-flooding event between Sunday and Tuesday night as several inches of rain, or half of a year’s worth, deluge the region in a span of 48 hours. This is your Sunday Storm. As of 5pm September 30, Rosa was a 70 mph Tropical Storm with minimum central pressure of 985 mb and located roughly 250 mi southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Rosa is expected to weaken further later tonight as she gets torn apart by shear and cool sea-surface…