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Joshua Feldman

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Thunderstorms will develop over the interior Northeast late Wednesday afternoon into the evening ahead of a robust shortwave trough and its attendant cold front. Storms will be most widespread in parts of New York and Pennsylvania, where large hail and possibly a weak tornado or two will be possible along with the main threat of damaging straight-line and downward rushing winds. A warm front has delivered a hot, sticky airmass to the Northeast, where a ripe environment for thunderstorms provided ample sunshine. A weak shortwave trough associated with an overnight thunderstorm complex in the Midwest will ride across the frontal boundary through early Wednesday afternoon, bringing light to moderate showers with it as it treks northeastward into New England. Cloud debris associated with this system will limit the extent to how strong thunderstorms become Wednesday afternoon. Showers will come to an end by early afternoon in the thunderstorm risk zone…

Excitement has spread throughout social media about weekend runs of the GFS model depicting a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall along the Texas coast next Sunday.ย  No other deterministic weather model is predicting such a scenario and only a handful of ensemble members of the GFS and the ECMWF are predicting any system in the Gulf of Mexico at all next weekend. Deterministic models provide one scenario whereas an ensemble provides one scenario for each of its members. Despite this, the naive hype spread like wildfire, even prompting an unusual response by the NWS Forecasting Office at Tallahassee, FL, warning – “Obviously, it’s important to pay close attention to the tropics during hurricane season, just do so responsibly ; )” in their forecast discussion.ย  Forecast discussions do not typically contain emojis. As of the latest three model runs, the GFS has lost this hurricane threat, exemplifying the inconsistent nature…

An active weather pattern will bring a series of passing fronts and upper-level disturbances to the Northeast over the course of this week. These features will bring wide temperature swings and locally heavy thunderstorms, but also the promise of being one step closer to a warmer, more typical summer pattern after their departure. Easterly winds will circulate around an idle high pressure system situated off the New England coast Monday. The oceanic air will keep the entire region cool. Inland areas of New England and the Northern Mid-Atlantic should warm into the mid 70s as dry air pushes clouds southward. Despite the sunshine, coastal areas of New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic will remain in the low to upper 60s. Clouds and light showers will keep eastern West Virginia, all of Maryland, and northern Virginia in the mid to upper 60s. Tuesday, temperatures will jump 5 to 15 degrees over…