Recent model data all lead to the conclusion that colder times are likely ahead for the Eastern U.S. by the time mid-December arrives. This is based on various factors, such as the MJO.

The MJO, which stands for Madden-Julian Oscillation, is characterized as an eastward moving ‘pulse’ of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days. This fluctuation in weather actually impacts the weather pattern across the United States on a day-to-day basis.

After taking a look at the forecast for the MJO for the next 30 days, it is forecast to evolve into a colder phase with stronger forcing. This will lead to a cold Eastern U.S. and a milder West. Now the question is will it snow?

MJO Index Forecast

In the graphic below, it shows the European model’s ensemble forecast mean at day 14, or mid-December. It shows a significant trough or dip in the jet stream in the East and a ridge over the West.

We know it will likely be cold for at least the East, but can we get a nor’easter that will dump snow to the Northeast? We don’t know but the pattern is definitely forecast to become favorable for cold and snowy coastal storms.

EPS Ensemble Mean for Dec. 9th

Jackson is Head of Content at WeatherOptics and produces several forecasts and manages all social media platforms. Previously, Jackson forecasted local weather for southwestern Connecticut, founding his website, Jackson's Weather, in the March of 2015. He is currently studying Meteorology and Broadcast Journalism at the University of Miami.

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