A strengthening low pressure over the southern Plains will track to the north and east, ending up in the Northeast by the end of this week. As the cold front associated with this low tracks to the east, that will lead to rounds of severe weather from the southern Plains to Southeast. All threats for dangerous weather will be present, including damaging winds, small hail, and a few tornadoes.
This afternoon, the severe weather focus will span from central Texas through Mississippi. The best risk for the most intense of storms will be found across southeastern Texas, much of Louisiana, and possibly into southwestern Mississippi. This comes as a strong, widespread line of thunderstorms roars east while a few supercells possibly form ahead of the line, indicating that tornado risk. Typically with these severe weather events, the threat subsides once the sun sets due to the decrease in instability, but this threat looks to persist overnight as it shifts toward the Gulf Coast states.
Then on Thursday, we’ll continue to watch that severe weather risk migrate eastward, becoming focused over the southeastern US. From eastern Louisiana through northern Florida and up through North Carolina, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, however the greatest threat will be centered between these areas. Again, damaging winds and hail as well as a few tornadoes will be possible as a result of these storms as the line of storms moves through. Some of the model guidance, such as the NAM, does actually suggest this line will begin to weaken in the afternoon, which would be good news for the eastern areas. However, uncertainty still exists.
By Friday, the line of storms will break up but scattered showers and storms will still remain possible ahead of the cold front along the East Coast, allowing for a marginal risk for severe weather from northern Florida up through the Tidewater of Virginia. Damaging winds will likely be the main threat if any of these storms turn severe.
Heavy rain may also be an issue with these storms as a widespread 0.5 to 2+ inches of rain comes down. This may result in localized flash flooding. Thankfully, drier weather should return for the weekend across much of the South.