A developing low pressure over the Midwest will wreak havoc across much of the East midweek, leading to heavy rain in the flood-stricken areas that received up to a foot of rainfall last week, as well as heavy snow to portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Then by the end of the week, it will be the Northeast’s turn, where snow and rain will affect the region as well as rough surf and ocean flooding along the coast. We discuss the Northeast uncertainty here.
Impacts from this storm will begin Tuesday as our low pressure develops and rain and snow forms. This storm system will be noticed in the South with scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and the ArkLaTex. As the day progresses, the rain activity will become more widespread, likely developing into a large batch of a light to moderate rain around the ArkLaTex region. There is also the chance for isolated severe storms in this region, which may contain damaging winds. There is even the risk for a tornado.
Then overnight Tuesday, the rain and thunderstorms will continue to become more widespread as they slowly move to the east. Rain is forecast to affect the western Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys, the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and the Red River Valley in the Southern Plains. The heaviest of rain will be found in the northern Gulf States of Mississippi and Alabama as well as parts of the Tennessee Valley.
Now as we get into our Wednesday, the storm system will continue to strengthen as it moves toward the Great Lakes. Due to this strengthening, the risk for severe weather will increase. The same threats of damaging winds and a tornado or two will remain for ArkLaTex into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. These showers and thunderstorms will build into the Southern Plains, specifically eastern Oklahoma and Texas while moving in or continuing across parts of the Central Plains, Mid-Missisppi, Ohio, and Tennessee River Valleys. By the end of the day, the showers will make it as far east as the western Carolinas and western Virginia. Back toward the Midwest, we’ll begin to see the wintry weather break out in the evening hours, especially in central Iowa at first.
As Wednesday night progresses, the snow will expand and intensify into portions of Minnesota. Meanwhile, back to the south, with the warmer air mass, showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the same areas of the ArkLaTex through the interior Gulf Coast states, and the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Rain will also expand back in the Chicagoland area as well as into much of the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviest axis of rain will be centered over the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys, the same areas that received heavy rain last week and are currently dealing with floods. This will only make the conditions worse and many rivers will go into moderate to perhaps major flood stage.
Then on Thursday, the snow will continue in the Upper Midwest. Specifically, snow, which may be heavy in some areas, is forecast to fall on Thursday from southern Wisconsin through southern Lower Michigan and northern Ohio and Indiana. A major city like Chicago may see the rain changeover to snow by the late-afternoon, so that is something to keep an out on. Back to the south in the warm sector of our storm, the rain will clear out of areas west of the Mississippi River while continuing in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms in much of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley. Rain will also move into much of the Northeast as the day progresses. We also want to note how winds will begin to become an issue for much of the East due to our strengthening storm, so widespread wind gusts of 30-40 mph is likely, leading to the chance for isolated to scattered power outages. That threat will continue into the overnight hours before winds relax from west to east during the day Friday.
By Thursday night, our coastal storm will really begin to take the headlines as it strengthens rapidly off the Northeast coast. Again, we’ll have more details on this storm on Tuesday. Meanwhile, back toward the south and west, showers and thunderstorms will begin to dwindle across much of the Southeast and Ohio Valley. Snow, however, will continue in southern Lower Michigan while expanding into portions of the interior Northeast and northern Indiana and Ohio.
By Friday, all of the weather from the large-scale storm will clear out of much of the East with the exception of the Northeast and parts of the Mid-Atlantic.