We’re tracking two pieces of energy, each from a different stream within the jet stream. As these two pieces move eastward toward the Central US, they will actual phase, or come together, to eventually produce a winter storm for portions of the Northeast this weekend. Before we get there, this developing storm will bring rain, heavy at times, through the South and into the Ohio River Valley.
The activity with this storm will begin Friday in the form of a light to moderate rain across portions of the Southeast US, including southeastern Arizona into southern New Mexico. It’s not until the overnight hours of Friday when the rain expands eastward into the Southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley. Again, this rain will be light so there are no concerns for flooding in this region, besides river flooding. Also the Southern Plains area is desperate for rain, but unfortunately most of this rain will miss the most drought-stricken areas, in the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma.
On Saturday rainfall will intensify, and a few pockets of heavier rain is possible, especially in the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Otherwise, rain is forecast the eastern Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states, especially away from the coast, the Ohio Valley, portions of the Midwest, and even into the Carolinas and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Some snow is also possible north of the Ohio River and back into portions of Missouri. Little to no accumulation can be expected there. Overnight, the rain will clear out of the South and much of the Ohio Valley, but it will continue in the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Carolinas through the first half of Saturday night. It’s not until early-Sunday morning when all of the rain will move offshore along with the low pressure system, which will continue to bring snow to parts of the Northeast.
Looking ahead to early next week, we’ll watch our next storm system leading to the development of rain, potentially heavy, across the Midwest and Ohio Valley.