Whether you like it or not, it’s that time of the year in the Northeast. Developing storms with cold air infiltrating from the north, leading to the crystal white flakes we know as snow. An incoming weak storm system from the heart of the country will meander its way east over the course of the day, spreading early season snow to Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois and the midwestern Great Lakes. While snowfall totals will be on the lighter side for these areas, the storm will cut north tomorrow and allow lake enhanced snowfall to form over the Great Lakes, leading to some slightly higher totals for parts of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio.
As this occurs, a secondary low pressure system will develop off the Delmarva coastline. This is something we typically see during the winter months, allowing colder air to stay in place across the Northeast and for snow to fall to the northwest of our low pressure system. This time around our low will develop along the coastline, which means heavy rains for the I-95 corridor and snow confined well to the interior. Once again as our low pressure strengthens and passes to the north, backside lake enhanced snow is likely.
Most of the snow will fall over the midwestern states later today and tonight as snow begins to break out across parts of Pennsylvania and western New York during the very early hours of tomorrow morning. Heavy rain will be falling from Pittsburgh to State College through the early afternoon tomorrow will moderate to heavy wet snow in and around the Buffalo region and surrounding areas. At this time backside snow will kick in across Michigan, piling on higher snowfall totals. Widespread 2-4 inches are expected here, with areas in extreme northern Michigan possibly receiving half a foot of the white stuff with winds whipping out of the northwest.
During the afternoon and evening hours of tomorrow heavy rain will stretch across the state of Pennsylvania, with a tail of showers and storms extending well south into Virginia and North Carolina. As warm air surges north, snow will change to rain even across upstate New York as heavier snow now moves into much of northern New England. This can be expected into the overnight hours of tomorrow.
Snow will pile up fast, with many higher elevations expected to see 4-8 inches of snowfall late Friday and into Saturday. Our primary low will actually begin to re-strengthen once north of Montreal, and allow for a similar northwesterly flow to take over the eastern Great Lakes region. This will lead to lake effect snow during the day on Saturday, adding to earlier snowfall totals. 2-4 inches of additional snow will be possible.
The hardest hit region will be extreme northern New England across the highest elevations, where up to a foot of snow will be possible. Strong winds during the second half of the storm and once precipitation comes to an end can also be expecting, aiding to the winter-like feel that many will be experiencing this weekend.
While southern New England won’t be dealing with snow, heavy rain will be likely come tomorrow evening and overnight into early Saturday. 1-2 inches of rain can be expected in a rather short period of time, leading to some possible flash-flooding.
By Saturday night this storm will be out of our region and well off to the north and east apart from some leftover lake effect and upslope snow showers. After that all eyes turn to a developing storm system for early next week. This one looks to be colder. Stay tuned.