A deadly flooding event has taken place across parts of Texas throughout this week, and the flooding rains won’t stop until this weekend as moisture continues to flow up from the Gulf of Mexico and clash with a stationary frontal boundary draped across the region. This will keep the risk for additional heavy rain and flash flooding in the forecast through late-week, although the risk this Thursday will be the most substantial compared to the rest of this week.
The Weather Prediction Center has a Moderate Risk for flash flooding in place for a small portion of central Texas. This is an area that has already dealt with flooding, so river levels are high. With more rain expected to fall on top of the already-saturated soil, there is definitely reason to believe that more flooding may take place.
Across Texas this Thursday, most of the state will experience rounds of showers and thunderstorms streaming in from the south. Some of this rain will even find a way into New Mexico, Colorado, and Oklahoma. Overnight, a trough moving across the Northern Tier of the US will begin to have an effect on this rain in the southern Plains, allowing it to reorganize into a more widespread area of light to moderate rain. This rain will track to the east, spanning from Missouri to the Rio Grande Valley of Texas.
On Friday, there will not be much forward progress in regard to the cold front in the southern Plains, but fewer people are expected to have to deal with the rain. The best risk for any rain on Friday will be in central and northeastern Texas. Meanwhile to the north and east, rain will move into the Ohio River Valley, Northeast, and Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Localized heavy rain and flash flooding will also be possible in these areas.
Through Friday night, up to 2.5 inches of rainfall will be possible across central Texas, while generally less than 1 inch will fall elsewhere in both Texas and across the Southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Areas to the north, including the Midwest and Northeast, can expect lighter amounts of less than half an inch.