A very nice week is ahead for the Northeast overall, featuring fluctuating temperatures that will average out to basically what you’d expect it to be like this time of the year. While it will be mainly dry through this Father’s Day weekend as high pressure dominates the pattern over the Northeast, some areas, particularly New England, are in need for rain. Parts of the region are currently experiencing ‘abnormally dry’ conditions, according to the latest drought monitor update. There will be a storm system that will move in on Wednesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be severe. A cold front will then sweep through the Northeast Wednesday night, allowing for dry conditions for most through at least Sunday.
On Thursday, there will be a few rain showers possible across upstate New York and northern New England on the backside of the departing area of low pressure. Meanwhile across the rest of the Northeast down into the Mid-Atlantic, it will be mostly dry and sunny. There will be a blend of sun and clouds, however, in New England, due to a cool pocket of air moving in aloft. This cold pocket promotes the formation of clouds because there is a greater temperature gradient between the ground and a few thousand feet in the atmosphere. In terms of high temperatures at the ground, it will be generally be in the 70s and 80s, which is near-average in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. In New York State and northern New England, the clouds and showers will hold temperatures to up to 20 degrees below-average, which means high temperatures in the 60s will be more commonplace. Parts of northern Maine will be quite cool, down into the 50s for highs.
Now on Friday, the pattern will begin to make a transition as a strengthening of ridge of high pressure begins to expand toward the East Coast. The heat associated with this ridge will wait until the weekend to deliver. Until then, Friday will be seasonable region-wide, with widespread high temperatures in the 70s. The southern Mid-Atlantic region will be a few degrees warmer, with some locations hitting the low to possibly mid 80s. This will be accompanied with mostly sunny skies at the coast and a mix of sun and clouds inland thanks to the cool air aloft that will begin to depart. It will also be dry across the Northeast, so the weather will be perfect for outdoor activities.
It’s been rather wet across much of the Northeast every weekend since at least early-May, but this Father’s Day weekend may be a turning point because many areas will have a dry one during at least the daylight hours. You can thank high pressure overhead, which will prevent the development of clouds and therefore precipitation. On Saturday, there will be an influx of high clouds associated with a disturbance that will bring in a round of showers and thunderstorms to inland parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and eastern Great Lakes. The day will not be a washout for these areas, and the remainder of the Northeast will enjoy a dry day, including New England, the Northeast coast, and the southern Mid-Atlantic region. High temperatures will be about average in the Mid-Atlantic, while it’s around 5 degrees above normal in New England.
On Sunday, Father’s Day, the disturbance moving across the Mid-Atlantic will fall apart due to an unfavorable environment. Other than a few showers at the start of the day possible in the region, it will be a dry, beautiful day with filtered sunshine across much of the region. Across much of the Mid-Atlantic, low clouds will gradually clear to sunshine, so the latter half will definitely be the better part of the day. Temperatures will begin to climb into the 80s across most of the region, and some towns will get into the low 90s due to the building upper-level ridge of high pressure, which is up to 10 degrees above average.
A new storm system will then move into the region early next week, bringing few showers and thunderstorms. We’ll have to watch if its front stalls over the Mid-Atlantic, which may bring a period of unsettled weather around Wednesday of next week.