A weak disturbance that is currently moving through parts of Michigan and the Ohio Valley this morning will continue sliding off to the east as we progress through the day. As it does so, a swath of light to moderate snow is expected across western and central Pennsylvania, as well as down the spine of the Appalachian Mountains into parts of Maryland, West Virginia and Virginia.
Further to the north along the Lake Erie and southern Lake Ontario snow belts, some higher totals are expected as lake enhancement may come into play. Erie PA up towards Buffalo and slightly to the west could see 4 to 6 inches of snowfall before things settle down tomorrow. Even Syracuse should be able to squeeze out a few quick inches of snowfall.
As energy is transferred offshore to a new developing low, a weak inverted trough will form and spread some additional light snow into parts of southeastern PA, including Philadelphia, as well as down into the southern half of New Jersey and parts of the Delaware shoreline. Totals here are expected to only amount to an inch or two at best, more likely then not we’ll see reports of mostly coatings to make travel a bit slippery out there.
This new coastal low that will take-over, which we had briefly anticipated would come further west than modeled, now appears will be rather weak and offshore. Still, light snow showers are possible over the central and eastern portions of Long Island, as well as into parts of southeastern Connecticut and southeastern New England. Again, mostly coatings to a quick inch or two with the exception of southern Massachusetts where we could see 2 or 3 inches with localized amounts to 4″ overnight tonight and tomorrow morning. By the afternoon most of this weak system will be out of the region with some left over flurries and snow showers possible.
The overall timing of the snow should go as follows, with snow beginning for western New York, northwest PA, and the east half of the Ohio Valley this evening (between 6 PM and 9 PM), before spreading down the spine of the Appalachians and more of western PA / western NY during the early hours of tomorrow morning. Around this same time snow showers will startup across parts of Long Island and southeastern New England associated with our coastal system.
By sunrise snow will lighten up a bit and spread into parts of central Pennsylvania, including the State College area, while it continues to pivot throughout western New York as our inverted trough tries to form. Light snow will also continue out towards the extreme eastern end of Long Island and southeastern New England. As we see this inland region of snow begin to fall apart, snow will finally move into parts of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware, although once again we don’t anticipate too much. By the mid and late afternoon hours, most of the Northeast will be free of accumulating snow with just some leftover showers and flurries. Next event moves in later this week.