Two new storm systems may fuel the risk for multiple days of severe weather across the South. Both of these storms will be Colorado Lows, or storms that develop on the leeward side of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado. These storms are known to produce severe weather, and this time will likely not disappoint. We won’t be talking about a severe weather outbreak because the atmospheric isn’t perfectly set up for that, but isolated to scattered severe storms are still expected.
The first storm will bring the risk for severe weather Friday into Saturday. On Friday, the best risk for strong to possible severe storms will be across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. Stronger storms are also possible across northeastern Kansas into much of Missouri. These storms will pose the risk for primarily damaging winds and isolated tornadoes as surface winds come in from the southerly direction while the strong winds aloft come in from the west. This spinning motion can be an instigator for tornadoes, but some of the limiting factors with this severe weather event will be a lack of instability and heat. In terms of instability, there will still be some, but it will be on the lower end of what is needed for strong storms. There will also be lots of cloud cover, so the sunshine won’t be able to destabilize the atmosphere. Temperatures will also be on the cool side, getting into the 50s and 60s. The hotter is in, the more prime the environment is to produce damaging storms. Now let’s time out these storms on Friday into Friday night: showers and some thunderstorms will develop as our synoptic-scale storm system develops early Friday morning. These showers will extend from eastern Nebraska through the Texas and Louisiana coast. By the afternoon, the precipitation will push eastward, impacting the Mississippi Valley from Iowa through the Gulf Coast. Behind this main batch of precipitation may be a few isolated storms that develop across the ArkLaTex region Friday afternoon into the evening. Then overnight Friday, most storms will be sub-severe as they impact the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
On Saturday, only isolated severe storms are expected, but that threat will remain in similar areas as on Friday, from the ArkLaTex through the Jackson, MS area. Only a few very scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through this region while more widespread rain showers impact portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Carolinas.
Then on Sunday, a new storm system will develop east of the Colorado Rockies. This may bring a more substantial severe weather threat to portions of the Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex. This next storm will bring back the threat for tornadoes, which may be a bit more numerous than on Friday as well as storms that developer damaging winds. With this next set up, a bit more instability and heat will be present or available compared to the first system, especially in north-central Texas where these storms are expected to develop ahead of a cold front. We’ll be sure to keep you updated on this next threat as the details become a bit more certain and clear.