A rather quiet but slightly annoying pattern is on tap for the Midwest over the next 7 days. Tomorrow will feature developing rain showers from St. Louis to Chicago to the upper Midwest through the first half of the day, with improving conditions into the evening and overnight hours as a storm passes well to the north. With a fairly strong northerly flow as our storm moves through, more Lake Effect Snow can be expected for the Upper Michigan peninsula as well as the northern parts of the state, although totals shouldn’t be anything too major. A few inches of wet snowfall can be expected.

After our system heads into eastern Canada, a nice end to the week and start to the weekend can be expected. Conditions should be fair, and temperatures should rebound to normal for this time of the year. In fact, as we move into the weekend, temperatures are likely to climb above-normal to well-above normal with numbers climbing as high as 10-15 degrees above average. That means 50’s and 60’s to the south of Chicago and 40’s and upper 30’s off to the north.

GFS Temperature Anomalies Valid Friday Night Via TropcialTidbits

While the weekend will start off nice, unfortunately the well-above normal temperatures will come with some more rain. A rinse, wash, repeat cycle, keeping things pretty similar to what we’ll see tomorrow. Another low pressure system develops, and rain spreads over the same locations from St. Louis to Chicago to the Upper Midwest. This time around our storm appear a bit further south and a bit stronger however, making the rain slightly heavier, and the possibility of weak thunderstorms also in the mix.

Just like tomorrow, this system will be another quick mover, with things clearing out later Saturday and into Sunday, and more Lake Effect Snow taking place over the same locations. The difference this go around is that the flow will be out of the NW and slightly stronger, making for some more potent Lake Effect Snow, and putting Lake Michigan into play as well. Again, not a big deal, but a few inches of wet snow will be possible for the typical Lake Effect Snow belts.

Beyond the weekend, not much activity likely in the mid-range. With a new and more active pattern starting to setup in a week or two, we look to near Thanksgiving for the next shot of anything potent. Stay tuned.


Currently leads business development and forecasting across all sectors and is the Founder and CEO. Pecoriello founded WeatherOptics in 2010 as a blog called, Wild About Weather, which quickly gained a following. He also launched an app in 2013 called, Know Snow, designed to accurately forecast the chances of school closings.

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