The upper-level low will depart from the Northeast this Tuesday, but more unsettled weather will unfortunately return for the second half of the week, as a slow-moving cold front moves to the south and east. This cold front will be associated with the same storm system responsible for bringing severe weather to the Central US.
Tuesday will be dry and sunny across the northeastern US. There may be a few stray showers in northern New England and Upstate New York, but all other areas have a very low chance for rain. Instead, high pressure will allow for the dry and warming conditions.
Then on Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into parts of the region. There will be several rounds that move through during the day and into the overnight hours, spanning from much of Wisconsin into northern Michigan and through portions of Upstate New York and northern New England, during the daylight hours. Then overnight, these thunderstorms will sag to the south, affecting southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, as well as much of the Great Lakes region, and into western and Upstate New York. A few showers may even extend into northern New England.
On Thursday, these storms will continue to move to the south and east at a very slow pace. If multiple rounds of heavy storms move over the same area, that may lead to flooding, which is definitely a concern. Also isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, especially in the interior Northeast. There is even the small chance for a couple tornadoes, but damaging winds and small hail will be the main risks. So during the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms will extend from the western Ohio Valley and southwestern Great Lakes region through the interior Northeast and northern New England. The I-95 corridor will remain dry. Storms will also mainly remain north of I-70 in the Ohio Valley. Then overnight Thursday, the surface low pressure will track into the western Great Lakes region. This will bring heavier thunderstorms into the region, some of which will be severe. Storms can be expected throughout the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley, as well as the interior Northeast, and northern and central New England.
By Friday, the storms will clear out of the western Great Lakes region during the morning hours. Then during the afternoon and definitely by the evening, in the Ohio Valley and the remainder of the Great Lakes region, the storms will also be cleared out. Most of the activity will be found in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. There won’t be much instability left in the atmosphere, so rain, instead of thunderstorms are more likely. These storms will slowly work southeastward toward the coast, but they will likely wait to move through I-95 until Friday night. Therefore, north and west of I-95 will be wet during the day, while the coastal areas may be wet overnight. These storms will begin to dissipate during this time period as the low pressure moves farther north and east into Canada.
The Northeast will dry out for Saturday and will be able to enjoy a sunny and seasonable weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.