Two new storms systems will move affect the South throughout next week, posing the risk for severe storms and heavy rain. These storms will be slow-moving, also leading to the risk for flooding.
Impacts will begin on Sunday. The activity looks to be pretty isolated with only a few showers and storms in the Southern Plains. There is a marginal risk for severe storms, however, from central Oklahoma through central Texas. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat as these storms form along a dry line.
Now on Monday, our storm system will slowly begin to develop east of the Rocky Mountain. This developing low will allow for scattered showers and storms to form across portions of the Plains and into the Midwest. Severe weather, including tornadoes, is possible across a similar area as on Sunday, from central Oklahoma through central Texas.
The threat for heavy rain will ramp up on Tuesday. The slow development and forward progress of this synoptic-scale storm will be the main instigator of this risk for pouring rains that may lead to some flooding as moisture flows in from the Gulf of Mexico. Rain and thunderstorms can be expected from the Midwest through the Southern Plains, but the best chance for the heavy rain will be from the Dallas area through the St. Louis area. Again, severe storms are possible, extending from northeastern Texas back through the the Big Bend of Texas.
Based on the pattern for the remainder of the weather, severe weather will remain possible for portions of the South, although the predictability is too low at this time for where those severe storms may occur. What we do know is that rain and thunderstorms will persist across portions of the US. This rainfall is currently forecast from the Great Lakes through the ArkLaTex and central Texas, which is where heavy rains are expected, on Wednesday.
As the first low moves off and into the Great Lakes, a new low will form over Texas, and that will continue the threat for heavy rains. These heavy rains may be even more significant and widespread. At this time, we’re thinking the heavy rain will extend from the ArkLaTex through the Tennessee Valley while scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible from the Southern Plains through the Mid-Atlantic.
By Friday, the low pressure will quickly zoom to the Northeast and eventually southeastern Canada. The heavy rain threat will end by this time, but scattered showers can be expected up and down much of the US East Coast.
A widespread three to five plus inches of rain is forecast through Friday. Unfortunately, none of the heavy rain will impact the western Southern Plains where a severe to exceptional drought continues to scathe the region.