The multi-day severe weather outbreak that began on Friday will come to an end this Sunday as the cold front responsible for these storms associated with the large-scale storm system moves off the US East Coast. 24 tornadoes have been reported so far from this severe weather outbreak, including 22 on Friday. More tornadoes are possible this Sunday, especially in western North Carolina and most of South Carolina.
A slow-moving line of rain and thunderstorms will be impacting the area from southern Lower Michigan through the eastern Ohio River Valley, the southern Appalachian Mountains, and western Florida by noon on Sunday. During the afternoon, this line will work into western Virginia and North Carolina, most of South Carolina, the Georgia coast, and the northern half of the Florida Peninsula. This is the timeframe for the best chance for strong to severe storms. Instability will be limited, so the hail threat is not as high as the damaging wind threat, but there will be some change in wind direction as height increases, so that’s why there is a tornado threat today. At the surface, winds will be coming out of the southeast while at 5000 feet, winds are coming out of the south-southwest direction. This creates spin in the atmosphere, which allows for somewhat conducive conditions for tornadoes in this particular situation.
By the evening, scattered storms will move into portions of the South Florida while storms have already moved offshore in northern Florida, all of Georgia, and at least the Lowcountry of South Carolina. To the north, storms will continue to slowly move east into central North Carolina and western and central Virginia. Scattered storms and showers will also develop in the I-95 corridor, but severe weather is not expected there. By midnight Sunday night, storms will have cleared out of all of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Meanwhile, rain and thunderstorms will still be impacting eastern North Carolina and much of Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Rain will also continue in portions of Ohio, West Virginia, and New York as well as the showers at the Northeast coast. By Monday morning, the severe weather threat will be over, but rain showers will persist across much of the Northeast from Pennsylvania through New England. Much of this rain will clear out by the end of the day Monday, but strong winds with gusts of up to 40 mph will follow. Wind gusts of up to 60 mph are possible in the Berkshires of Massachusetts and Vermont, which is where a Wind Advisory is in place.