A very active week of weather in terms of severe weather is ahead as a rather stalled-out weather pattern takes place. There will be an area of lower pressure over the Central Plains through Monday and Tuesday, containing a cold front to its south and a stationary front to its east, draped across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. This stationary front will create a train track for those storms to follow.
This Sunday, we’ll see a line of rain and storms working southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England midday. That line will then move offshore, allowing for new thunderstorms to develop not only in the Mid-Atlantic but back through the Ohio River Valley. Now along the cold front will be additional storms. A line of scattered thunderstorms will form in the evening near the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles and will track toward central central Oklahoma and Kansas, but will then weaken by sunrise on Monday. There will also be an area of severe storms near the Rockies in north-central Colorado and southeastern Wyoming, which have the chance of producing a tornado.
The best chance for severe storms will be near the Panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas as well as in northern Indiana. Otherwise, strong to severe thunderstorms will be found from the western Southern Plains through portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Tornadoes will not be a threat with these storms. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main risks.
On Monday, we do it all again as the risk for severe storms is outlooked for very similar areas as on Monday. In the morning hours, scattered showers and storms, most of which will be sub-severe, will be found in the Central Plains and Midwest. The severe weather threat will then begin to evolve in the afternoon as new storms develop, especially in the evening. An intense line of strong storms will likely develop in the Southern Plains while a few supercells possible form over West Texas. In the Ohio Valley, storms will be in more of the scattered variety. Stronger storms may then develop Monday night in portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
The best risk for the strong storms will be in the Southern Plains and portions of the Midwest. Wind and hail are the main threats with these storms, but a few spotty tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
By Tuesday, the risk for severe weather will begin to decrease, but portions of the Southern Plains and Mid-Atlantic are not totally out of the woods. The Storm Prediction Center indicates a ‘Marginal Risk for severe storms in these areas during the afternoon and evening hours. Atmospheric conditions will be sub-par for widespread severe storms.