It’s been months since we’ve had to talk about the risk for severe weather, but the first true threat for severe weather of 2018 has arrived this Sunday. The development of severe storms is possible from central Missouri southward through the eastern Texas Gulf Coast and Louisiana Gulf Coast.
In the morning hours, spotty showers will develop in this severe threat area as a strong flow of moisture streams in from the Gulf. Showers will become more organized during the afternoon across eastern Texas and Oklahoma, but it’s not until the evening hours between 5 and 7pmCT that a strong to severe line of storms develops ahead of a cold front, which is associated with the Midwest blizzard. This line of showers and storms will quickly develop and will stretch from the Midwest in Iowa and Illinois all the way through the Gulf Coast as it chugs eastward Sunday night. The greatest threat for severe weather in the area we mentioned will be between 6pm and 2amCT before the best dynamics for severe weather weakens. The main risks with this severe weather will be isolated damaging winds and tornadoes. We are not expecting a significant outbreak of severe weather because not all ingredients are present–There is enough wind shear and a moderate amount of moisture but only a marginal amount of instability.
By daybreak Monday morning, the line of storms will clear out west of the Mississippi River while the large remainder of the Eastern U.S. deals with the showers and thunderstorms.