High heat and oppressive humidity will build in the Northeast Monday and Tuesday. Thankfully, this discomfort won’t last long. A cold front and potent upper-level trough will prompt the development of widespread thunderstorms late Monday night through Tuesday evening. Some of the storms could become severe, threatening much of the region with damaging wind gusts and a slight risk for hail. However, tornadoes are not expected. Behind the cold front, much lower temperatures and dew points will come into the Northeast.

The most widespread heat will be felt on Monday. Temperatures in the low 90s with dew points in the mid 70s will make it feel as if it were in the mid to upper 90s in the eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New England, and the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys of New York. On Tuesday, a morning passage of the cold front and associated thunderstorms will prevent the heat from returningย  to most of New York and Pennsylvania. The Hudson Valley and southeast Pennsylvania will be on the fringe of the heat, which will return mostly to areas south and east for one more afternoon ahead of the cold front and thunderstorms.

The cold front and it’s parent upper-level trough will approach Ohio, West Virginia, western New York and western Pennsylvania late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Though instability will be minimal, the region will reside along the right-exit region of a vigorous jet-streak. Air diverges near this quadrant of a jet streak, which must be replaced with air from the surface. Thus, there will be enough rising motion to generate widespread thunderstorms. These storms are not expected to be severe, but given the abundance of moisture, many of them will contain torrential downpours. Buffalo, Rochester, Erie, and Pittsburgh will be confronted with these storms overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning, clearing by the end of the morning rush hour.

The storms will increase in coverage and intensity throughout the day Tuesday. They will gradually outpace the cold front, reaching Syracuse,ย  Binghamton and Scranton by midday and lasting for a few hours. East of the Susquehanna River in Pennsylvania and east of I-88 in New York, the storms will arrive just late enough for the sun to peek through the clouds for a long enough time to buildup some instability. This instability, alongside modest wind shear, will encourage intensification and organization of the thunderstorms as they trek southeastward across New York and Pennsylvania toward New England and the I-95 corridor.
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Scattered clusters of storms will align themselves into a southwest to northeast oriented line of heavy thunderstorms, at which point powerful wind gusts and possibly hail could occur anywhere in its path between early afternoon and evening. This intense line of storms will approach Scranton, Albany, and Saratoga Springs by the middle of the afternoon, clearing around the time of the evening rush. Cities further south and east in won’t be as fortunate with the timing of the storms. A late afternoon through early evening storm arrival could compound rush hour traffic woes with torrential rain and strong winds along the I-95 Corridor from Washington, D.C. to New York City. This will also affect New England cities such as Hartford, Springfield, and Manchester. Storms here could persist throughout the entirety of the evening rush hour.

The storms will reach the DelMarVA Peninsula, Jersey Shore, Long Island, and the I-95 Corridor from New London to Boston slightly later in the evening. Onshore flow will make the storms on Long Island and southern New England more benign than they were further northwest whereas the storms reaching the coasts south of New York City could still maintain some severe characteristics. Storms should clear the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts by midnight.

 

 

Temperatures and dew points will be much cooler Wednesday behind the cold front. It will feel like early fall in much of upstate New York, Pennsylvania, and northern and inland New England, where temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. Due to air mass modification, temperatures will only cool to the upper 70s to middle 80s along and east of the I-95 corridor. But with dew points dropping from the 70s to the 50s, it will nonetheless feel refreshing. These beautiful conditions are expected to last through the end of the week until the approach of an upper-level trough this weekend brings the potential for more thunderstorms.
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Author

Josh is a lifelong nature and weather enthusiast as well as the Head Meteorologist at WeatherOptics. He began regularly forecasting for New Jersey, Long Island and New York City in 2014 on social media, contributing to community pages such as SBU Weather. He holds degrees in Physics and in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences from Stony Brook University, from which he graduated in 2018. In the Fall of 2018 Josh will start graduate school for his M.S. in Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook, continuing his research on approaches to non-convective wind gust forecasting.

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