Days of severe weather is ahead for the first half of this week across portions of the South while heavy rains make for the risk for flooding from the eastern Southern Plains through the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
On Monday, the threat for severe weather will exist from eastern Kansas and western Missouri through portions of the Big Bend of Texas. All threats of severe weather will be present, including large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. We’ll see storms develop in the late-afternoon or evening along a dry line slowly moving in from western Texas. This line of storms will form in the western extent of this severe weather risk region and will slowly track south and east. Meanwhile to the north, rain and thunderstorms will impact much of the Midwest, Great Lakes region, and Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night.
Then on Tuesday, the risk for severe weather will shift a bit and will be in place from the ArkLaTex through the Big Bend of Texas once again. These storms that bring severe weather will be the same storms from Monday as the dry line slowly pushes these storms southeastward. Because the line of storms will already be presented, severe storms are possible at any time of the day and into the overnight hours. Since the peak heating of the day or the best instability will be in the afternoon and evening, that’s when there is the greatest chance for severe storms. Further north and east, generally light to moderate rain showers will affect the Ohio Valley and into the interior Northeast.
As we get into Wednesday, the severe weather threat will become more focused from the Jackson, MS area through the Texas Gulf Coast. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will remain the threats associated with these storms once again. A new storm system developing over Texas will be the main instigator for these storms while high moisture content streams in from the Gulf of Mexico. Further north, rain showers will continue to fall from the Mid-Mississippi Valley, through the Ohio Valley, and into parts of the Northeast.
This storm system will continue to bring rain to similar areas on Thursday and/or Friday, and snow may even fall north and west of the low pressure from the lower portions of the Midwest through the interior Northeast.