A developing upper-level disturbance and a weak area of low pressure at the surface originating from Florida will propagate to the west, tracking right along the Gulf Coast this weekend and into the start of next week, will be responsible for soggy times across the region.
Following clouds and widespread rain and thunderstorm activity across the Florida Peninsula on Friday, that precipitation will slowly begin to travel to the west. Now even though this weather may not sound nice, at least it will provide some relief from the heat, keeping temperatures down into the 70s and 80s opposed to the 90s.
On Saturday, scattered showers and storms will be possible along both coasts of the Florida Peninsula during the morning hours. As the daytime heating increases, the precipitation will become more prevalent, affecting more of Florida. It will not be a washout, but numerous convective activity will be present across central and northern Florida while most of South Florida actually enjoys a dry day, especially in the afternoon. A few storms may also sneak into southern Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia late in the day.
Most of the storms will then dissipate over land overnight while most of the activity focuses offshore. Whenever a strong ridge of high pressure sets over the Eastern US — like now — there is typically the risk for some tropical development over the Gulf of Mexico. The northern Gulf will have to be watched the next several days, starting from off the western Floridian coast, for potential formation. Thankfully, if a tropical cyclone develops (low chance), the storm will be weak and will likely only be a tropical depression, making it solely a rain-maker.
On Sunday, similar areas will be at risk for storms, especially in the afternoon thanks to the peak of the day’s heating. Storms won’t be as widespread, but now most of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia will be at risk for widely scattered, hit or miss thunderstorms as well as the spine of the Florida Peninsula. The sea breeze should keep most coastal areas dry while storms are more present over the Florida Panhandle.
Once again, the same states will feature that chance for a few storms, especially across the southern half, on Monday to begin the new week. The most widespread of rain will be along the central Gulf Coast, spanning from eastern Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Locally heavier downpours can be expected thanks to the entrainment of tropical air from the south. While much of the storms dissipate overnight Monday, near the center of possible low pressure, heavy rain is becoming increasingly likely along the Louisiana coastline, thus promoting the risk for localized flooding.
Much of Mississippi and Alabama will experience a completely dry day on Tuesday while a new disturbance approaches the Southeast coast, bringing in an enhancement to the convention across the eastern Carolinas, Georgia, and the Florida Peninsula. In terms of the Gulf Coast soaker we are tracking, it will make its way into eastern Texas and the ArkLaTex by Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be heavy, into the region. Storms will also remain possible in Louisiana.
By Wednesday, scattered storms will become possible across the eastern half of Texas as this disturbance weakens, transitioning into the typical summertime, hit or miss thunderstorms.
Through Wednesday, parts of the immediate Gulf Coast may receive over 3 inches of rain while a widespread 1 to 2 inches adds up across the southern Gulf Coast states.