A new disturbance, which is responsible for bringing heavy snow to portions of the northern Rocky Mountains, will be taking a nosedive toward the Southern Plains on Tuesday. It will then track toward the Southeast before the weekend begins.
On Tuesday, rain is likely through much of the duration of the day in central South Dakota while snow falls just to the west, and it will be heavy with over half a foot possible for some locations. It will also be a rainy day for much of Kansas following a pretty dry morning. Rain will be more in the scattered variety for other areas with rounds of showers moving through Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Now in portions of West Texas, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the evening hours and will become more widespread as the night progress. There may also be a couple strong to severe storms that deliver small hail and damaging winds.
Overnight Tuesday, the rain will become more widespread across the Southern Plains. Some areas that are in an ‘Exceptional Drought,’ the worst drought category of them all, will experience rain. Rain is likely across much of Kansas, Oklahoma, and into the Rio Grande Valley. Rain showers will also persist in southeastern Colorado and central Nebraska, where snow is also possible on the backside of the weak low pressure. It will be light, however, so little to no accumulation is expected.
On Wednesday, it will be a rainy day for portions of the Southern Plains. Rain is forecast for much of Kansas and Oklahoma and portions of Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, along the Rio Grande River, and from West to Central Texas. A line of stronger storms may also develop and will roll through Central Texas, which may pose the small risk for damaging winds. By the end of the day, a few rain showers may sneak into the western Tennessee River Valley ahead of the main shield of rain.
Wednesday night, rain will begin to focus across the central Gulf Coast states, but the rain will also fall in portions of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley as well as southern and eastern Texas. The steadiest and heaviest of rain will be confined to Louisiana and Mississippi.
On Thursday, we’ll still be tracking this rain as it moves to the east. Rain showers will clear out by the afternoon in most of the Lower and Mid-Mississippi River Valleys while a steady rain comes down in portions of Mississippi, Georgia, and the western Florida Panhandle. Alabama will likely be socked in with the rain through much of the day, but at least the risk for severe weather will be low.
By Thursday night, the rain will finally reach the East Coast. Showers will clear out of the much of the Southeast while Georgia and the Carolinas primarily experience the rain. At the same time, a weak coastal low may form off the coast, which may enhance the rainfall rates. It will tap moisture streaming northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico, and that moisture may bring rain to South Florida.
Then on Friday, the main area of precipitation should be offshore, but widely scattered rain showers are possible in the Southeast and back toward the ArkLaTex region. South Florida may remain on the wet and stormy side due to the stagnant plume of moisture.
Finally by Friday night, all of the unsettled weather should come to an end while we track a cold front moving in from the Midwest, which will allow for scattered, light rain showers to move through the Great Lakes and Northeast regions Friday into Saturday.