Everyday as new model guidance comes out, the trend has been for a less snowy and impactful forecast, and that trend continues to occur this morning. We’ll be watching an area of energy that will contribute to a developing low pressure over the Southern Plains today, both of which will come together and track toward the Mid-Atlantic. It will then become a coastal storm this weekend, but it is expected to track too far offshore to limit impacts to New England.
Check out the past 6 runs from the GFS model, highlighting a weaker storm and a shift of the moisture with each new run:
This Friday, a light to moderate snow will be diving southeastward associated with that area of energy. Therefore, snow is forecast to fall at times for western and southern Montana, much of Wyoming, eastern Colorado, and portions of Nebraska and Kansas. Given the light intensity of this snow, not much of it will accumulate unless you are in the mountainous regions. Therefore, most roads should be fine for travel.
Then overnight Friday, the low pressure system over the Southern Plains will take over. This storm will pull the precipitation and moisture to the east. Therefore, snow is forecast to fall Friday night at times from portions of Kansas and northern Oklahoma through southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, and into the Ohio River Valley. A mix of rain and snow is also possible in portions of the Mid-Atlantic back toward Oklahoma and north-central Texas. During these overnight hours is when there is the best chance for accumulating snow, especially in the Ohio Valley. Snowfall will not be significant, however.
Now on Saturday, the forecast remains somewhat challenging. Since the precipitation with this storm continues to trend to the south, areas from Washington, DC and to the north could be in the clear with not much rain and/or snow falling there. We are still expecting some snow to fall south of the Mason-Dixon Line and in southern New Jersey during the second half of the day Saturday, but the best chance for snow will be in most of Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia. For Virginia, the rain will changeover to snow through the duration of the day. Even snow and a wintry mix may work into northern Tennessee and western North Carolina, which is quite remarkable for this time of the year. Of course there won’t be any road issues, however, given the fact that temperatures will be above freezing in these areas. Now where snow is forecast, some accumulation is expected, but most roads will remain wet.
Saturday night, snow may continue across eastern Virginia and into the DelMarVa, otherwise the rest of the region will dry out as our storm moves offshore. This low is expected to track out to sea, but there is energy moving in from the east that may want to expand its precipitation shied, so a light snow cannot be ruled out for the Northeast coast Saturday night, especially in southeastern Massachusetts. If this were to happen, only up to 2 inches of snow would likely fall.
By Sunday, we’ll say goodbye to this storm system as it tracks into the Canadian Maritimes.