Although large-scale patterns over the country won’t be changing much until early next week, the Northeast should remain on alert for localized flooding with the rain that passes though this morning as well as unseasonably cold temperatures that will continue to dominate the northern half of the US. This pattern will not change drastically until early next week, when Hurricane Rosa will bring heavy rains to the Southwest.

This is the Friday edition of your Morning Briefing, let’s dive right in.

Even More Rain in the Northeast:

  1. This morning, rain will finally move off of the coast of New England as it tracks out to sea, finally ending this rainy period we seem to have been stuck in.
  2. Before these rains end, flooding is possible, especially in flood prone areas and near rivers and lakes.
  3. Rainfall totals will not be as high as in previous storms this week, however, saturated ground increases risk for flooding in some areas.

After the last bits of rain from the south make their way into the Northeast this morning, we will finally see a break. However, this rain can still be damaging, especially in flood prone areas. Between this morning and last night, localized areas received multiple inches of rain throughout parts of the Northeast. As these systems finally begin to move offshore, the Hudson Valley, Long Island, and southern New England should remain alert for the next few hours as the last of this system makes its way through. Locally enhanced rainfall amounts are still possible for Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. Although rainfall totals will not be as high as the other storms we’ve had this week, saturation of the ground from these earlier storms increase risk of flooding in some areas. Pay attention to local alerts, don’t drive into flooded areas, and stay dry.

Read about these last bits of rain and possible flooding for the Northeast here.

Cold Air Remains Over Northern US:

  1. Cold temperatures will continue to dominate in the Northern US throughout the weekend, only warming slightly early next week as upper level patterns begin to change.
  2. Precipitation in these areas have been mixed, with snow falling in parts of the Rocky Mountains due to higher elevations, something we don’t usually see this early into fall.
  3. Frost and winter weather advisories have been issued for much of the Northern Plains as temperatures continue to hover around freezing at night.

Cold Canadian air has officially made its way into the US and planted its feet. A low pressure trough aloft, combined with a surface high currently over southern Alberta, will continue to push in and keep frigid temperatures in the Central Plains throughout the weekend. Precipitation has formed due to rising motion ahead of a jet streak, with rain changing over to snow fpr higher elevations in the Rockies due to these unseasonably low temperatures. States in the Northern Central Plains have seen lows each night of just above freezing, or even just below at higher elevations. Many of these areas remain under frost and winter weather advisories due to these cold temperatures.

Read more about this major cool down across the country here.

Hurricane Rosa Could Bring Heavy Rains to the Southwest:

  1. Hurricane Rosa is expected to make landfall in Baja California next Monday, bringing tropical moisture and heavy rains to the Southwest.
  2. Even as this storm falls apart, it will still be able to dump plenty of water into southern California, Nevada, and the Four Corner states.
  3. Rainfall of 1-3 inches in expected throughout the area, but parts of Arizona and Southern California, where the remnants from Rosa’s core will fall, are expected to receive half a foot of rain.
  4. Flooding, especially near rivers, is possible and likely. Land and mudslides are also a threat to these desert areas.

Currently a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, Hurricane Rosa threatens to bring excessive moisture to the Southwest. Moving west at about 6mph, this storm is expected to turn northeastward this morning to begin its journey toward the coast. Tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive to Baja California midday Sunday, however the center of the storm is not expected to arrive until sometime Monday afternoon. The heavy rain and moisture associated with this storm will be felt in Southern California starting on Tuesday. The worst of it is expected on Tuesday night, as what remains of Rosa’s core will bring heavy rains and flash flooding into the Four Corner. Rainfall of a 1-3 inches is expected throughout most of the region as Rosa makes her way through, while areas where this core remnant is expected to pass through may get over half a foot of rain.

You can read a much more in-depth analysis on the heavy rains that will be brought to the Southwest here.


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Also remember to lookout for The Sunday Storm this upcoming Sunday evening as well as Five Things to Watch This Week next Monday.


Kathleen is a Meteorologist at WeatherOptics, where she works writing content for the website, providing accurate and detailed forecasts to clients, and consulting on various meteorological projects. Kathleen earned her B.S. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences in 2018 from Stony Brook University. Kathleen has also done research into our changing climate by investigating theRole of Atmospheric Rivers on Arctic Amplification in 2017.

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