A rather quiet week of weather is finally in store for the nation overall, with only a few small-scale storm systems expected to impact the US. What we are looking at, though, includes a risk for severe storms in the Southeast on Monday and rain to start the week in parts of the East. This comes as periods of snow and rain continue to impact portions of the western US. Here’s your 5 Things to Watch for this week.
A disturbance responsible for some severe weather across the central US on Sunday will track east, bringing the risk for isolated severe thunderstorms to parts of the Southeast this Monday. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Marginal Risk for severe weather, mainly in Alabama and Georgia. The question is the timing of these showers and storms, as the later they take place in the day, the better the chance these storms have to strengthen and possibly become severe. Either way, the risk for large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado are there.
Eastern US Showers:
The same disturbance bringing the potential severe weather to the Southeast will also be responsible for a round of showers and storms across parts of the eastern US Monday into Tuesday. A line of rain will move through the area in and near the Appalachian Mountains on Monday. On the southern end of this line, there may be just enough moisture and instability for thunderstorms to form. Otherwise, a period of rain will be the story. Then, by the end of the day Monday and into the first half of Monday night, that line of rain and some thunderstorms will track east, affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. This rain will track off the East Coast by Tuesday morning, although the rain may linger into the first half of the day in the Outer Banks.
Rounds of Western Rain and Snow:
Rounds of rain and snow are in store for parts of the western US, especially mid to late week. A weakening disturbance will bring rain showers to Northern California and Oregon on Wednesday while snow affects the higher elevations, including the Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada. Then Thursday into Friday, we’ll see brief shots of rain and snow affect the Northwest. Now while this snow should be light for the most part, it will be prolonged in several locations, so over a foot of snow may fall.
The model guidance is suggesting that an area of low pressure may form and slowly intensify over the Plains this weekend, bringing rain to parts of the central and eastern US while snow may fall from the central Plains through parts of the Midwest. Because we are looking over 5 days out in time, however, the details are still to be determined. We know the risk for more rain and snow is there for this area, but we don’t know where exactly the precipitation will fall and how much rain and snow there will be. A major storm is not expected, however.
Round of Warmth Traverses Nation:
A round of warmer than normal air will traverse the nation this week, moving from the intermountain West at the start of the week to the East Coast by the weekend. It will only last for 3 days for each location it affects, however, due to another round of cooler air coming in behind it. With this warmer air mass, temperatures will generally be 5 to 15 degrees above average, but will be up to 25 degrees above normal in the central Plains on Wednesday, making for a pleasant preview to spring.