It’s yet another week of severe weather, as we track a large-scale storm system bringing dangerous thunderstorms to parts of the South and Southeast.
Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches are currently in effect as we get into this evening. As we get into tonight, the risk for severe weather should gradually lessen but will still exist, especially across the Lower- and Mid- Mississippi River Valleys. The tornado threat will also decrease once the sun sets, but the threat of wind, hail, and flooding will still exist throughout the evening. The line of strong to severe storms over the ArkLaTex this evening will move to the north and east tonight, roaring through northern Louisiana, all of Arkansas, and southern Missouri before weakening once it reaches the Mississippi River after midnight. We may then see a new round of strong storms develop early Thursday morning across the ArkLaTex, but we think the flooding threat will be greater than the tornado, wind, and hail threats. This is because there has already been a lot of rain that has fallen over the past couple of weeks — including today — and those heavy, recurring thunderstorms will be possible tonight, making the rainfall situation even worse.
Now on Thursday, that severe weather threat will not move much, spanning from the Ohio River Valley back through eastern and southern Texas. The best risk for the more intense storms, however, will be across the ArkLaTex and Mid-Mississippi River Valley. All modes for severe weather are possible, with wind and hail as the greatest threats. Isolated tornadoes are also expected. Unlike a classic severe weather threat when the most active weather takes place late in the day, we think that the worst weather will actually be in the morning thanks to the strong line of thunderstorms from Wednesday night maintaining its strength. Then by the afternoon, it should weaken, but a few more scattered storms may develop behind it, keeping the flood risk in play.
By Friday, although the risk for intense storms should diminish for the most part, they cannot be ruled out across the central Appalachian Mountains.