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Joshua Feldman

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The long-advertised change to a cold and snowy wintry pattern for the eastern half of the country is finally poised to arrive this weekend. Inaugurating the change will be a significant cross-country winter storm expected to impact a corridor from northern California to the Northeast. But before this storm takes shape, a weaker system will clear a path for it across the Midwest and Northeast between Thursday and Friday. The path and intensity of this weaker system will ultimately decide the fate of the potentially more significant weekend storm. The behavior of the jet stream will set the storm path and intensity. Split into a northern and southern branch, each branch will contribute in some way to the weekend storm. The northern branch will supply the cold while the southern branch will supply the initial disturbance. The disturbance will develop from enhanced energy from the Pacific decelerating over California’s Sierra-Nevada…

Since late December we have been warning that the relatively warm, wet conditions that have dominated the eastern half of the nation would erode by the middle of January, making way for a colder, snowier second half of winter. Temperatures are poised to warm back to seasonal temperatures this week, but the long range outlook still highlights more frequent cold shots and chances for snow for the Eastern US. The Northeast’s first significant winter storm could impact the region as soon as next weekend. It seems this weekend’s cross-country snowstorm was merely a precursor of things to come. January 20th appears to be the critical date at which the gates to the arctic open to the Eastern US. Readers may recall from last week’s Sunday Storm that this date is the first to feature a completely split polar vortex pattern in the Northeast. The polar vortex is the semi-permanent region of…

Winter catapulted to a record-setting start with on the East Coast with an unexpected 3-6″ snowfall November 15. But since then, the frequent warm downpours have made it obvious that winter has largely been absent. Over the last two weeks we discussed winter’s whereabouts and why it has been so warm and wet. We alluded in the most recent Sunday Storm that over the next few weeks this warm, wet pattern will gradually become more wintry. In accordance with our expectations, the first signal for a widespread East Coast snow event has finally appeared. It was noted in the most recent Sunday Storm that another storm could be brewing in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, but that signals pointed toward a suppressed storm steering clear of the Northeast. Since that writing however, a slew of more possible scenarios have emerged. The most notable trend in numerical guidance has been…