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Joshua Feldman

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Nearly one full week of January has already passed yet parts of the Carolinas have recorded more snow this winter season than most of the big cities in the Northeast. Instead of snow, most of the East has been inundated with a series of heavy rain events, with the Southeast taking the brunt. Last week we addressed some of the reasons for this pattern and when to expect the arrival of more persistent winter weather. This week we elaborate further on some of those details. A Powerful Pacific Jet Stream: The “Pacific” subtropical jet stream has dominated the weather pattern since early December due to a developing El Niño. The warmer than normal waters of the eastern equatorial Pacific have intensified the temperature gradient between the equator and the arctic closer to the mainland US than normal. As the Pacific has warmed, so too has the air above it. Warming…

The calendar will roll over into a new year Tuesday, but the wet weather pattern that dominated the last six weeks of 2018 will continue. Two additional storms will emerge from the Gulf of Mexico and soak the Eastern half of the country this week. This relentless pattern featuring Gulf of Mexico moisture swamping the East has many wondering when winter will finally show its face.This is your Sunday Storm. The first rain storm this week will be drawn northward into the Mississippi River Valley Sunday night by an upper-level low pressure system crossing the Rocky Mountains and the Southwest. A strong low-level jet will develop between the temperature contrast of the warm Gulf and cold continent ahead of the upper-level low. This jet stream will pull the developing system to Northern New England by the time the ball drops over Time Square Monday night. The heaviest rain will follow…

Tis’ the season to be rainy. The weekly cross-continental train of moisture that has been in service since the end of November will continue this week. Its route will be nearly identical to that of the last several weeks, making stops in the Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountains early in the week before picking up more moisture in the Gulf of Mexico. From there, the moisture will disembark over the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. The locomotive already arrived on the West Coast in the form of an upper-level shortwave trough of low-pressure. The dynamics of this upper-level system are responsible for forcing the propagation of moisture across North America. Its arrival was met with the deluge of heavy rain and snow across the Pacific Northwest. The rain and snow will persist until Wednesday morning, long after the departure of the driving locomotive. That’s because the upper-level low pressure…