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Scott Pecoriello

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As a cold front moves through, this will set the stage for a fresh batch of cold air to sit over the Northeast region on Saturday as showers and thunderstorm begin organizing across the southern United States. By Saturday night our fast moving storm system will spread rain across much of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic as snow begins to breakout from Ohio to southern PA. As this happens late Saturday and Saturday night, our storm system will begin to rapidly strengthen as it exits the coast, producing a swath of moderate to heavy snow either just along I-95 or just to the northwest. This is where the forecast becomes unclear. Above we have two different models – The top model is the GFS (Global American Model) and the bottom is the NAM (Mesoscale American Model). There’s a solid 50-100 mile difference in the placement of the low pressure, with the…

The new pattern we discussed last week seems to be holding itself nicely as we watch yet another storm system move into the region with heavy snow for the interior and a mixture of snow and ice for the coastline. Forming out west and moving eastbound, this winter storm will likely cause headaches for millions by the middle of this week. The major difference with this system compared to the last, seems to be the possibility of colder air holding on a bit longer, potentially expanding the region of snow and ice further towards the coastline on Wednesday morning. Our winter storm will begin moving out of the western states later tomorrow, producing snow to the north across parts of the Plains and spotty shower and thunderstorm activity to the south across nearly all the southern states. As the two separate areas of convection begin merging together overnight on Tuesday…

A low pressure system will trek across the Great Lakes later this weekend, bringing with it a round of rain and snow to much of the Midwest and Northeast. Snow will begin to break out late on Saturday across the Upper Midwest, dropping a quick couple of inches for many of the northern states. As the northern part of our storm meets up with southern energy, more precipitation will begin to breakout further to the south, spreading additional snow across Indiana, Ohio and western Pennsylvania Sunday morning and into the afternoon hours. With our storm moving so far to the north, warmer air will usher in ahead of it, keeping most coastal areas as rain and interior areas as light to moderate snow. By Sunday afternoon we anticipate snow to spread all across New England, and rain further to the south. The heaviest of the snow will be confined to…

The month of December featured extremely cold temperatures and frequent small snow events. The beginning of January brought much of the same, including a widespread blizzard that dropped snow from Florida to Maine. A mid season thaw finally allowed the eastern third of the US to take a break from the cold and snow, but we’re now in the process of seeing another pattern shakeup. The question is, what does that mean for weather across the nation? Looking back at the time period from late December to early January, you can see in the temperature anomaly map above truly how chilly the country was for nearly everyone east of the Rocky Mountains. The good news for those of you sick of this cold weather, is that a repeat of similar weather is expected for next winter. The bad news is, an extremely active pattern now setting up will still bring…

A weak disturbance that is currently moving through parts of Michigan and the Ohio Valley this morning will continue sliding off to the east as we progress through the day. As it does so, a swath of light to moderate snow is expected across western and central Pennsylvania, as well as down the spine of the Appalachian Mountains into parts of Maryland, West Virginia and Virginia. Further to the north along the Lake Erie and southern Lake Ontario snow belts, some higher totals are expected as lake enhancement may come into play. Erie PA up towards Buffalo and slightly to the west could see 4 to 6 inches of snowfall before things settle down tomorrow. Even Syracuse should be able to squeeze out a few quick inches of snowfall. As energy is transferred offshore to a new developing low, a weak inverted trough will form and spread some additional light…

After a brutally cold start to the Winter season across the eastern half of the United States, many are much happier this week with temperatures bouncing back between average and above average over the last 8-14 days. Take a quick look at what the start to January 2018 looked like (week 1) vs the second week (week 2): Notice just how anomalously cold the first week of January was from east of the Rockies all the way to the east coast, including the Deep South. So cold in fact, that the anomalies are literally off the charts across the ENTIRE Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest, bottoming out somewhere near 25 degrees below average. A much different look to the overall pattern the following week, with solidly above average temperatures for most areas east of the Mississippi River, and a small cool-pool across the Midwest and northern Plains. This…

Snow is already falling across the country all the way from Houston, Texas to State College Pennsylvania at this hour as a large, strung out storm system marches towards the east coast. This is the second unusual snow event in the Gulf Coast and Deep South this Winter. This storm includes Florida, which will see it’s third snowfall of the year tonight. As our original low pressure well to the north begins to weaken, a second area of low pressure will form off the New Jersey coastline, and bring heavier snows from northern New Jersey through much of southern New England, including cities such as Albany, Hartford, Boston and Concord. Already we’re seeing signs of our developing coastal low offshore, and as that low continues to strengthen, the light fluffy snow currently falling with become heavier and accumulate higher totals. This worst of the storm will likely hit southern New…

The first half of Winter has been extremely active across the eastern half of the United States with a blizzard that kicked off the new year and multiple snowstorms between December and January. With the brief thaw this weekend (that still ended with a snowstorm for the interior Northeast), is Winter finally taking a break? It doesn’t appear so – Or at least remains unclear at the moment. Over the last week, our computer model guidance has hinted at the potential for another coastal snowstorm that could impact the major cities along the I-95 corridor, but as always, there has been a lot of flip-flopping and struggling. Just as we’ve seen with our recent past threats, this entire setup relies on the energy and pattern at 500 mb in our upper atmosphere. In order to get a snowstorm to come to fruition, we need a good ridge in the west…

After brutally cold temperatures and snow covered much of the east coast last week, we’re dealing with quite a different storm system this week – Not only in precipitation type but also in size & scope of impact. A weak and jagged low pressure is currently centered over the northern Great Lakes spreading snow across a good portion of the upper Midwest with scattered rain showers further to the south and east. As this low weakens, a more potent area of low pressure will develop further to the south, allowing arctic air to crash behind our system and change most of what starts as rain over to freezing rain, sleet and snow. In some respects, this is quite unusual. In the meteorological world, back-end snow seldom works out, as arctic fronts usually lag far enough behind storm systems to make changeovers either brief or nonexistent. This particular scenario though will…

After one of the coldest starts to winter in decades for the eastern third of the United States, it finally appears that some relief is on the way. Since the middle of December, we’ve been locked into a very rigid pattern, with a big trough sitting in the east and a large ridge out west. This has allowed frigid air from Canada to dive directly into the east, while the west has stayed dry and hot. The major California wildfires and lack of snow across the Rockies are a direct result from this pattern that has held serve for nearly an entire month. Looking at the temperature anomaly report above from weathermodels.com, you can see just how abnormally cold the end of December through early January has been for every state east of the Rockies. Many records were shattered both across the Midwest and the Northeast, and snow visited Florida…