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Scott Pecoriello

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With snow already beginning to creep into the Mid-Atlantic states, it’s time we release our final snowfall forecast and analysis for the East Coast Blizzard. Snow will continue to head north and west throughout the night and tomorrow morning, increasing in intensity and size as it does so. Precipitation won’t be the only thing intensifying — Winds will be on the rise as well, with gusts reaching tropical storm force or higher along the immediate coastline from Virginia to Massachusetts to Maine. Some isolated gusts near hurricane force will be possible across extreme eastern Long Island and extreme southeastern Massachusetts. The latest observations and new data has allowed us to shift our snowfall axis further west and inland once again, with heavy totals now stretching from the Delmarva to New York City to Boston to Bangor. The sweet-spot for this storm will stretch from southern New Jersey through Long Island…

As we warned about for the last several days, guidance has now caught onto our impending blizzard shifting further to the west, spreading heavier snow totals along the major I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to Boston to Bangor. Regions further to the south won’t escape the storms fury either, with blizzard conditions and heavy totals extending all the way down to the coastal Mid-Atlantic and even the coastal Southeastern US. This morning Floridian residents woke up to temperatures below freezing and snow falling from the sky, accumulating on the grass and cars in many places. A bit further north, Savannah GA and Charleston SC are currently experiencing heavy sleet, ice, and snow, and are expected to receive several inches by time things come to an end later this afternoon and evening. Our storm forming off the coast of Florida is nothing short of extraordinary. Many forecasters and meteorologists are claiming this…

Over the last several days we’ve discussed the possibility of a coastal storm rapidly developing parallel to the eastern seaboard, and shifting far enough west to impact much of the I-95 corridor with heavy snow and strong winds. While this still remains a “thread & needle” type of event where small changes could have huge implications on impacts, it’s becoming more clear this evening that at least a significant portion of the I-95 corridor will be affected by a powerful snowstorm. Over the next 24-48 hours, energy will gather from the southern Plains and northern Plains, beginning to interact late tomorrow. These two separate short-waves of energy will likely phase, at least partially, and create an incredible amount of moisture and energy off the southeast coastline tomorrow morning and afternoon. Within an 8-12 hour time block between 7 AM and 7 PM tomorrow, we’ll likely see our storm drop 10-20…

With only a few days to go before snow could start breaking out across the eastern seaboard, there is still a lot to figure out with our impending storm. Many of the same questions that our forecasters were trying to answer yesterday remain on the foggy side today, as guidance continues to waffle back and forth between a crippling I-95 blizzard and a close-miss. With that said, seeing as the storm begins later on Wednesday, our team is going to take our first shot at what may unfold later this week. First off, regardless of what this system ends up doing, it will be extremely powerful. As far as winter storms go, any low pressure system that dips below 970 mb is fairly rare in nature, and if guidance can agree on anything at this point, it’s that we could be dealing with a sub 965 mb storm by time…

We’ve stayed relatively quiet about a possible major snowstorm for later this week, but with some new data and the storm drawing near, it’s time to start discussing the potential for this. Just as we saw with yesterday’s major snow that never really materialized, we’re watching two (maybe even three) distinct pieces of energy associated with two different jet-streams that will begin interacting with each other early next week. The big question that will answer whether or not the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast get hit by a major snowstorm is: do these two pieces of energy phase together, and if so, how quickly? When presented with this same question last week, there was a lot of evidence to suggest we’d have enough interaction to bring a good thump of snow to I-95, but as the storm got closer, it was obvious the pattern was too progressive to phase anything together. A…

If the last few days have felt cold, get ready for the beginning of next week. The upcoming pattern looks to bring the coldest weather of the season so far for more than two-thirds of the nation, with temperatures dropping well below 0 degrees for millions. While the coldest air and most widespread temperature anomalies will hit Monday morning, the chill will be very prolonged as it’s already underway and doesn’t show signs of letting up through at least the first week of January, and likely longer. A perfect setup in the upper atmosphere is allowing for arctic air to directly seep down into the lower 48, and this new pattern doesn’t appear to be going anywhere soon. Extreme ridging in the western United States due to the combination of a positive PNA and negative EPO (large scale teleconnections that drive the weather pattern in the US), will cause a…

If you’re an avid weather enthusiast, than you’ve probably already seen discussions of a potential major snowstorm right before New Years. Even those who don’t track storms as rigorously have probably already heard rumors of possible heavy snow to close out the year. Guidance has been quite consistent on showing big storm potential between the 29th and 30th of December, and per usual, the models aren’t sold on one single outcome just yet. With the storm being a full week away, this shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. We can’t argue with the fact that the potential for a major east coast snowstorm is certainly there, but the question remains will all pieces of the puzzle come together in time to bring a big storm into fruition? We’ll show you the latest analysis on what’s going on, and hopefully will be able to clear some questions up along the way.…

A weak storm system currently dropping snow across parts of the Midwest will move eastward overnight, bringing snow to much of the Interior Northeast. Warmer air pushing in from the south will overlay the colder air, allowing for rain to fall but freeze at the surface. This nasty combination will likely lead to dangerous conditions Friday afternoon and into Saturday, with some areas receiving as much as half an inch of freezing rain by time all is done. The frozen precipitation will come in two batches. The first begins during the early hours of tomorrow morning, with snow overspreading Upstate New York and quickly changing over to freezing rain and rain during the afternoon and overnight hours for much of New England. Early Saturday morning there will be a brief interlude before our second batch works into the region from the south, bringing more rain and freezing rain, this time…

With Christmas and New Years right around the corner, the busiest travel season of the year is upon us, and right now the weather doesn’t want to cooperate. After a quick start to the Winter season with multiple snow events and flakes covering the ground from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast, the last few days have been a much welcomed period of warmer weather and sunnier skies. However, the break from the wintery weather looks like it’s going to end Friday, as one weak storm system moves in from the Midwest and another merges from the south. The result? A sloppy and icy start to the weekend. The storm out of the Midwest will likely move in first, spreading light to moderate snow showers from the western Great Lakes into Upstate New York and New England. This will begin overnight tomorrow and last through the daytime on Friday. As the…

Even before the official beginning of Winter 2017/2018 (still 4 days away), we’ve gotten  off to a rather fast start, with multiple small to moderate sized snow events from the Deep South to the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. In fact, for many, these last 2 weeks have probably felt a lot more like the middle of the winter than the middle of December, with record breaking lows, a growing snow pack, and consistent storms back to back to back. But will that last? Of course not. Starting this week, the eastern US will begin to feel a big change in the weather, with temperatures closer to normal and rain taking away a lot of the snow that still remains on the ground. This big swing in temperatures is thanks to a massive flip in our upper level atmospheric pattern, with higher heights dominating the eastern two-thirds of the country and…