As we warned about for the last several days, guidance has now caught onto our impending blizzard shifting further to the west, spreading heavier snow totals along the major I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to Boston to Bangor. Regions further to the south won’t escape the storms fury either, with blizzard conditions and heavy totals extending all the way down to the coastal Mid-Atlantic and even the coastal Southeastern US.
This morning Floridian residents woke up to temperatures below freezing and snow falling from the sky, accumulating on the grass and cars in many places. A bit further north, Savannah GA and Charleston SC are currently experiencing heavy sleet, ice, and snow, and are expected to receive several inches by time things come to an end later this afternoon and evening.
Our storm forming off the coast of Florida is nothing short of extraordinary. Many forecasters and meteorologists are claiming this is much like any other Nor’easter, but the origin of the storm near the Bahamas and the Bombogenesis that will bring the storms center possibly under 960 mb’s, makes this a rare and powerful blizzard.
The high-resolution NAM model valid for Thursday morning shows our monster storm sitting several hundred miles off the coast of the Delmarva, with an eye-like feature and depicted low pressure of under 950 mb’s (946 mb to be exact). For some perspective, Superstorm Sandy had a low pressure around 940 mb. While our team agrees this is probably an overdone scenario, you can still get a sense of just how powerful this storm will be once all the energy phases together.
The snow will begin across the southern Mid-Atlantic states later today, and spread into areas like Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and southern New Jersey overnight tonight. By time the sun rises, we expect snow to be falling across most of the major I-95 cities from Philadelphia to New York City to Hartford. Boston will see snow falling by mid-morning. Strong, gusty winds will quickly accompany the heavy snowfall as Thursday goes on, and we anticipate blizzard conditions to begin developing from coastal Virginia to Long Island, parts of CT and MA, and on up into coastal New England. Conditions may get very nasty and dangerous heading into the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday, as heavy snow bands pivot through and winds gust past 40-50 mph. The immediate coast will be at risk of damaging winds with gusts getting towards hurricane force at times.
Our new snowfall forecast for the Blizzard (second call with a final one tonight), has shifted the heaviest totals further to the west (as expected), putting the Philadelphia to just east of Albany corridor at risk for 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts.. And the corridor from Atlantic City to New York City to Burlington VT at risk for 4-8 inches of snowfall with locally higher amounts. Meanwhile the worst of the storm will likely stretch from southeastern Virginia to the southern Delmarva through central and eastern Long Island and up into central and eastern CT, eastern Massachusetts, and all of eastern New England. It’s this region where we expect possibly 1-2 feet of snow to fall, with very strong winds, and bitterly cold temperatures following behind. Blizzard conditions will be possible/likely stretching from coastal North Carolina all the way up through eastern NYC suburbs, Boston, and Bangor. Power outages and some damage is a concern, which will become a bigger issue once temperatures plummet to near record cold lows and highs in the following days.
The snow comes to an end by Friday for the entire region, but temperatures will be our next big story, with the air becoming even colder than it was this past week. That means many of the major I-95 cities getting close to 0 degrees, with wind chills a good 10-15 degrees colder than that, and places further inland bottoming out between -15 and -30 degrees Fahrenheit. Absolutely brutal.
“Warmer” weather looks to come towards the mid-month, getting temperatures back closer to average for this time of the year, but still too early to tell exactly what type of weather will ensue around then. Another update tonight, and updates all throughout the day on our social media pages. Keep it here.