The risk for severe weather will return to the Central Plains the end of this week and possibly into the weekend. A digging trough of low pressure moving into the intermountain West from southwestern Canada will be the main trigger for the development of strong storms. These storms will have the capability of producing primarily damaging winds and hail, but a few tornadoes will be possible as well.
On Thursday, the severe weather threat will be centered over Nebraska, but surrounding states will also be at risk for storms of this magnitude as well. Thursday morning, a line of rain will be moving eastward from eastern Montana through portions of the Dakotas. A few showers and thunderstorms will also be possible in Nebraska. Then into the afternoon, the emergence of a dry line slowly moving eastward from the Rockies will be the instigator for the initialization of the strong to severe thunderstorms in Nebraska. These storms will track eastward across Nebraska overnight, clearing much of the region Friday morning. Therefore, severe storms will also be possible Thursday night, thus making for a dangerous situation. Meanwhile to the north, showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the afternoon. Then into the overnight hours, the moisture will congeal into a widespread, steady rain moving from South Dakota through much of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Iowa by Friday morning.
Speaking of Friday, the threat for severe storms will exist across a similar area, although it will be more to the south and east of Thursday’s threat. While that first round of rain rides along a warm front into the Great Lakes region during the day Friday, a developing surface low pressure over the Central Plains will allow for the development of showers and thunderstorms across the Central Plains Friday night. The daylight hours should be dry, but then a few storms will form overnight.A few of these storms may be supercells, which may produce a tornado.
Now during the weekend, there will be the low risk for severe storms in the western Southern Plains on both Saturday and Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dry line. There may be a bit more storm activity on Sunday compared to Saturday, but an outbreak of severe weather is very unlikely.