As one system moves out, the next one begins moving in—this time for the Midwest, interior Northeast, and New England. Overnight, a weak area of low pressure will drop south from Canada, spreading light snow into Minnesota and Wisconsin. This system will be very fast moving, and by time the sun rises tomorrow, light snow showers will have spread into much of Michigan and northern Illinois and Indiana (including Chicago).
By tomorrow night, we expect the low to begin strengthening slightly, with light snow showers continuing across Michigan and slowly moving into Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania, and western New York. It’s by early Tuesday morning, though, where the interest really begins to grow with our system. The low pressure will strengthen a bit more and snow showers will become not only heavier, but more expansive, spreading light to moderate totals across northern Pennsylvania, the entire western and northern-tier of New York, and much of New England. This is due to interaction with the warmer ocean temperatures off the east coast, allowing the clipper system to pack an extra punch before exiting the region. Just in time for your Tuesday morning commute, moderate snows will be falling from Buffalo to Syracuse to Albany to Concord. Areas further south and closer to the I-80 corridor will struggle to see all snow, even as precipitation begins expanding southward towards New York City. With temperatures a good bit above freezing, wet snow will be possible, but this area will likely see rain most of the time, and any snow that falls will have a very hard time accumulating.
Above is the overall setup for our clipper system. It enters through North Dakota and Minnesota, dropping just a few inches of snow, and then gradually begins to deepen as it heads east and taps into some warmer Atlantic waters. The Great Lakes will also play a major role here, with winds shifting out of the north and west, enhancing the snow that moves through and adding significantly to the storm accumulations before, during, and after the clipper system moves through.
Northern New England will receive the most synoptic snowfall though, meaning the majority of the heavy snow will actually come from the clipper system itself as our low pressure strengthens under 990 mb’s. We expect significant accumulations of 6+ inches from upstate New York through much of northern and middle Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
Above, we’ve zoomed in a bit and are now taking into account total snowfall from today through Monday, Tuesday and into early Wednesday when our clipper system finally exits. You can see the Lake Effect snow belt region is the hot-spot for this storm, with a foot or more possible in the most persistent bands once our clipper moves through. Today is also a big Lake Effect snow day, with very strong bands kicking up off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Again though, as we head towards Burlington and up through Maine, most of that snow will come from the Clipper itself.
Areas further to the south below the I-90 corridor will have a harder time with significant accumulations as surface temperatures will be warmer, with our low drawing in some air from the Atlantic. Still, wet snow flakes cannot be ruled out, especially early on, close to the I-80 corridor from State College to just north of New York City. However, these areas will likely see a wintery mix, and we’ll see a change over to rain the further east you head. Even northern areas up into the Berkshires, southern New Hampshire, and coastal Maine will struggle to remain all snow, somewhat dampening the higher end accumulations.
Lake Effect snow will likely continue on past Wednesday, so some of these numbers near the lakes will probably be too low. On top of this, yet another clipper system looks to move in by the end of the week. We’ll have details on that later tomorrow. Stay tuned.