As a digging trough of low pressure works into the eastern US late-week, that will trigger the rapid but weak development of a low pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday night. After bringing a light snow to parts of the central Plains and Midwest, it will then usher in a round of potentially heavy snow to portions of the Great Lakes and the interior Northeast while rain falls closer to the coast.
This comes as cold air intrudes most of the country by this weekend thanks to the trough. High temperatures will generally be 10-20 degrees below average, which will make conditions favorable for snow in numerous regions.
On Thursday, we’ll begin to see a light to moderate snow break out across eastern Colorado into the central Plains. The “hotspot” for the greatest snowfall totals looks to be in central Kansas due to the combination of cold air and higher moisture flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico. By late in the day, northern and central portions of Missouri will then experience some snow, most of which will not accumulate,. Showers and thunderstorms will take place over the southern Plains.
As our storm system intensifies a bit further while tracking to the north and east, that will bring snow — mostly on the lighter side — to much of the Midwest, especially Thursday night. The best risk for snow will be north of the Ohio River and across the Great Lakes. The major cities, such as Chicago and Detroit, can expect periods of rain and snow showers, but any accumulations will be little to none thanks to the marginal temperatures in place and the lighter precipitation intensity.
To the east, snow will begin to break out near the eastern Great Lakes and northern New England as the day progresses on Friday. This comes as the moisture runs into the cold air. Given the strengthening of this low pressure, snow across parts of these areas is likely, especially in the Buffalo metro area in the morning. That snow may then changeover to rain in the afternoon, before drier air sweeps in Friday night and some lake-effect snow develops. Meanwhile in northern New England, much of the Green and White Mountains can actually expect snow much of the day Friday into Friday night, and most of this snow should be heavy.
Based on the latest track of the coastal low pressure, which should form Friday night, it will hug the New England coast, keeping the risk for any snow at the coast very low. There is a slightly higher chance in Maine at the onset of this precipitation, however, but no accumulation is anticipated.
Across the I-95 corridor, it will just be a rain and gusty wind event Friday into Friday night. Drier but cooler weather will then takeover the eastern US just in time for the weekend, with the exception of lake-effect snow coming off the Great Lakes. We’ll discuss snowfall totals later this week, but some areas in northern New England that are located at a higher elevation will likely end up with over 8-12 inches.