An incoming cold front will sweep through much of the Plains, Midwest, and Northeast by late-week, but showers and thunderstorms will precede it. Tangled up with this cold front will be multiple waves of low pressure, triggering its own complex of thunderstorms and enhancing the severe weather threat. Once the front moves through, cooler and drier air will then follow, making for some nice relief during the dog days of summer.
On Tuesday, the cold front will drift to the south and east, now targeting the interior Northeast and Ohio River Valley will severe storms. Most of the Northeast should be dry Tuesday morning, while showers and thunderstorms remain prevalent in the western Ohio River Valley and parts of the central Plains.
Those showers, which are associated with one of the waves of low pressure, will take over the thunderstorm and severe weather threat in the afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move to the south and east across much of the Ohio River Valley.
A more organized line of hit or miss thunderstorms will develop in the Northeast during the early afternoon. This line, originating from northern Maine through central Pennsylvania, will track to the south and east and will affect much of New England and the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday evening, posing the risk of localized damaging winds. Other than a spotty storm or two, the precipitation should diminish before reaching the I-95 corridor after sunset.
A complex of storms that formed Tuesday evening over northeastern New Mexico will track toward central Oklahoma by Wednesday morning. This area of convection may develop into a Mesoscale Convective System, and may bring the threat of damaging winds and large hail to the area in which it tracks. Thankfully, it should weaken midday Wednesday before reaching the ArkLaTex.
We’ll also see scattered showers and storms Wednesday morning across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and into the interior Northeast. This precipitation will track southeastward through the evening, bringing the risk for storms to much of the remainder of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Storms will also be a bit more widespread than they have been in the Southeast as a result of this approaching front.
In terms of severe weather, the best risk will be across the Mid-Atlantic where damaging winds will threaten parts of the region. Otherwise, lightning and locally heavy rain will be the main threats associated with these storms.
A new cold front will then emerge into the Midwest, triggering hit or miss showers and thunderstorms to the region Thursday into Friday. A few storms will also be possible in the interior Northeast, but it’s not until the weekend when that risk potentially increases in the northeastern US.