Recent model data all lead to the conclusion that colder times are likely ahead for the Eastern U.S. by the time mid-December arrives. This is based on various factors, such as the MJO.

The MJO, which stands for Madden-Julian Oscillation, is characterized as an eastward moving ‘pulse’ of cloud and rainfall near the equator that typically recurs every 30 to 60 days. This fluctuation in weather actually impacts the weather pattern across the United States on a day-to-day basis.

After taking a look at the forecast for the MJO for the next 30 days, it is forecast to evolve into a colder phase with stronger forcing. This will lead to a cold Eastern U.S. and a milder West. Now the question is will it snow?

MJO Index Forecast

In the graphic below, it shows the European model’s ensemble forecast mean at day 14, or mid-December. It shows a significant trough or dip in the jet stream in the East and a ridge over the West.

We know it will likely be cold for at least the East, but can we get a nor’easter that will dump snow to the Northeast? We don’t know but the pattern is definitely forecast to become favorable for cold and snowy coastal storms.

EPS Ensemble Mean for Dec. 9th

Jackson is COO and Head of Content and Strategy of WeatherOptics. He also designed his own website and created the local company, Jackson's Weather. He has been forecasting the weather for southwestern Connecticut since March of 2015. He is currently a senior in high school and will major in Meteorology and Broadcast Journalism at the University of Miami in Fall 2018.

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