Another week of unsettled weather is ahead for the southeastern US. However, aren’t really any storms that will be responsible for the repeated storms this week. Instead, it will be the moisture, heat, and instability that sparks the development of these thunderstorms. These storms, often called “diurnal storms,” gain their energy from the sun and form as daytime heating increases. This explains why it is mainly dry in the morning, then as temperatures warm storms form in the afternoon. Once the sun sets, most of the thunderstorms dissipate due to the loss of solar energy.
On Monday, hit or miss showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire Southeast. Given this nature of the storms, some towns will experience severe weather while others have a dry but humid day. This will be the story the entire week, as no areas will experience a washout. The most widespread storm activity on Monday will be in the Carolinas thanks to a cold front to the north focusing the moisture. Localized heavy downpours will be possible with any of these storms thanks to the deep moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico.
On Tuesday we repeat again, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across parts of the Southeast as the day progresses. In many areas, it will be dry in the morning until you approach the northeastward-moving warm front draped across the Ohio River Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic region. These areas will experience rounds of rain throughout the day due to the lifting mechanism from the front.
By Wednesday, much of the Southeast actually looks to be dry, as diurnal heating will be the sole reason for storm development rather than fronts. There will still be thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon across the region, but the activity will not be as widespread as on Monday and Tuesday.
Thursday will be even quieter. The interior Southeast will likely experience a break from the repeated rounds of rainfall thanks to drier air moving in from the north associated with an area of high pressure. The best chance for storms will be near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts as well as in Florida, which is surrounded by these two bodies of water.
On Friday, moisture will begin to surge back in on the backside of that high pressure, but this activity still doesn’t look to be too widespread. Hit or miss showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the entire Southeast.
In terms of rainfall through Friday in the Southeast, it’s rather impossible to predict how much each town will receive given the hit or miss nature of this convection. Generally less than one inch can be expected for most areas, but some towns may end up receiving over three inches if heavy thunderstorms move overhead.