The combination of a developing low, stationary front, and deep tropical moisture streaming in from the eastern Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico will fuel days of heavy rain and thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains. While most of this region is experiencing a drought, too much rain too quickly may lead to flash flooding, something residents will have to keep an eye on.
It all begins on Friday, as low pressure forms on the leeward side of the Rocky Mountains, sitting near the Texas Panhandle for days. Showers and storms will become widespread across northern Texas, especially in the afternoon, and scattered storms will enter the southwestern US, mainly areas in New Mexico and Arizona. There may be a few, isolated severe storms, but the main concern with these rounds of storms that move through will be flooding.
There won’t be much of an organized rain, rather it will be widespread, scattered showers and storms. This will remain the story on Saturday across northern and eastern Texas, as well as across much of Oklahoma. This front will extent into the Gulf Coast states, but those storms will be even more isolated. The same applies to the monsoonal storms that develop in the afternoon across southern portions of New Mexico and Arizona.
Sunday into Monday may feature the heaviest of rains as the low pressure becomes further organized. That best risk will exist across western and northern Texas, as well as southern and western Oklahoma. There may be a cluster or two of heavier, more widespread storms that form. If that’s the case, flash flooding may definitely be triggered in some locales. Showers and storms will remain in the forecast across the southern Plains, with the exception of the Texas Gulf Coast.
By Monday, the heavier rain will begin to drift into the central Plains as the low pressure begins to move and the pattern breaks down, allowing for much drier weather to return by Wednesday.
Through Monday night, the heaviest of rain will be found in western Texas, where as much as 10 inches of rain may come down. Otherwise, a widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall is forecast across the South, and 2-3 inches from western Texas through central Oklahoma.