Trough turns negative offshore

A new disturbance coming in from the Northwest U.S. and Canada will lead to the development of a light to moderate snow for portions of the Northeast while a coastal low forms to start the new week. This disturbance will drop a swath of snow from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic Monday into Tuesday. Meanwhile as a trough associated with this disturbance and upper-level energy digs and begins to take on a negative tilt, a surface low will form off the Northeast coast. There is still some uncertainty about where exactly this low tracks, and a westward shift has occurred today, which has been common so far this season. Therefore, stay tuned to the forecast for the New England coast because the outlook may change.

During the morning on Monday, snow will break out across southern portions of Lower Michigan, northern and central Indiana, and western and northern Ohio. Also a few snow showers are possible in parts of Illinois and Wisconsin, but little to no accumulation is expected there. Then during the afternoon, the snow will move to the east, impacting all of Ohio and eastern Kentucky while the snow pulls out of Indiana. By the evening hours, extreme western Pennsylvania and New York as well as much of West Virginia and portions of the Appalachians in Virginia, North Carolina, and eastern Tennessee will experience the snow. Also with the coastal storm, snow is forecast to fall in much Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts from midday Monday through most of Monday night. Again, the exact track of this storm is uncertain, so more locations may deal with snow than what is currently forecast.

Overnight Monday, snow will be falling from eastern Ohio through western and central parts of New York and Pennsylvania, the Appalachians, and parts of northern Virginia and western Maryland.

Then on Tuesday, snow will likely be falling across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, including eastern Pennsylvania and Virginia, much of Maryland and Delaware, and southern New Jersey. Major cities including Washington, D.C., and Baltimore could be in for a difficult morning commute as the snow falls during this time period while Philadelphia sees the snow falling during the midday hours. Even some light snow showers may make it as far north as New York City for a brief period. By Tuesday evening, the snow will move offshore and as energy phases and transfers to the coastal storm.

Snowfall accumulations will be light for most areas. This snow will generally drop a light swath of one to three inches of snow from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic while the coastal storm brings as much as much as half a foot of snow in localized areas Monday into Monday night.


Jackson is COO and Head of Content and Strategy of WeatherOptics. He also designed his own website and created the local company, Jackson's Weather. He has been forecasting the weather for southwestern Connecticut since March of 2015. He is currently a senior in high school and will major in Meteorology and Broadcast Journalism at the University of Miami in Fall 2018.

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