We wrote a post Sunday night about the chances of snow in the Northeast. That chance has decreased slightly since Sunday based upon what our models are showing us. Our confidence in this forecast still remains low, but it is increasing. There are many pieces in the atmosphere that are essential to the eventual outcome of whether or not the Northeast gets snow from a coastal storm.
The general pattern across the U.S. will be a ridge over the West and a significant, sharp trough over the East by this weekend. This pattern and the amplitude of the trough already screams coastal storm to me. Often times when you get a large trough over the East, you need to watch the coast for the development of a low pressure system.
First Storm Threat:
The first potential storm we are watching is during the start of the weekend on Saturday. A coastal low will likely develop off the East Coast early on Saturday morning, but the digging trough will be too far west and still in a positive tilt. Therefore the storm will be pushed out to sea instead of closer to the coast. Despite this, it is still possible that this storm will have an impact. The models are still fluctuating on whether the coast will get some snow. The main takeaway from this storm is that there is the chance of snow on Saturday along the coast.
Second Storm Threat:
Now it’s the second storm that makes the forecast more interesting. The trough that I just talked about will begin to take on a negative tilt while strengthening. At the same time, a secondary area of low pressure behind the first one may develop just off the Northeast coast. The trough will transform into a neutral position, but again it seems like this storm will be kicked out to sea. Again, this is a scenario — Confidence remains low.
The million dollar question is where will the low be? Will it be close to the coast having maximum impact, or will it be far offshore and just scrape the coast with light snow — If anything? The most recent run of the European model keeps the storm way off the coast for zero impacts, but this may still fluctuate.
That’s basically all we know at this time, but of course WeatherOptics will keep you updated as we get closer to this weekend. Beyond then, there is another chance for snow around Wednesday, December 13th for the Northeast.