A large rainstorm will threaten most of the East with heavy rain, flash flooding, and gusty winds late-week. This comes as a strengthening low pressure over the South travels up the East Coast, bringing the rain from the Southeast up to the Northeast by Friday.
This Thursday, severe weather will be impacting much of the Florida and possibly parts of the Southeast coast. Even several, spin-up tornadoes will be possible across the Sunshine State. Numerous Tornado Warnings have already been issued by the National Weather Service this morning.
In terms of the rain and flooding this Thursday, there is going to be a widespread swath of steady rain across the Southeast and then the Mid-Atlantic and eastern Ohio River Valley by late in the day. Rainfall rates will exceed 1 inch per hour in some of the heavier pockets. Given how saturated the soil is and how much rain the East has received this year, flash flooding will be possible, especially in the Carolinas due to the recent snowfall.
Then overnight Thursday, the Northeast will begin to experience the rain while drier air gradually sweeps across the Southeast, ending the widespread rain there. Rain will span from as far north as Maine to as far south as Florida while showers spread as far west as Arkansas, illustrating how large this storm system is. Even in northern Maine and possibly the highest of elevations in northern New England may experience periods of freezing rain Thursday night into Friday morning.
By Friday, showers will still be spinning around the low pressure over the Southeast while Florida becomes mainly dry. Meanwhile in New England and the eastern Mid-Atlantic, it will be a wet and rainy day. New England can expect a washout while the steady rain clears out of the Mid-Atlantic by midday for most areas. On the backside of the low pressure, however, there will be a second round of rain that will affect the Appalachian Mountains. Some snow may even be mixed in with that, adding up to a few inches in a few areas.
By Friday night, most of the rain will have cleared out of the East, but we’ll watch cool air interact with the remaining moisture on the backside of the low pressure, leading to a round of snow across much of the interior Northeast. Cities like Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and Syracuse can all expect a quick few inches of snowfall thanks to this passing line of snow before drier air shuts off that snow.
On Saturday, the East will finally dry out but will experiencing cooler and sunnier weather. There may still be a few lingering snow showers across the interior Northeast, however.
Another component of this storm between now and Saturday will be the gusty winds, which may fuel isolated to scattered power outages, especially in New England. Widespread wind gusts of 30-40+ mph is expected with gusts up to 40-55 mph in parts of New England.