A weak but strengthening area of low pressure currently centered near the Texas Panhandle will track to the northeast through midweek, bringing heavy rain and the risk for flash flooding to the central and southern Plains as well as parts of the Midwest. This comes as deep, tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico interacts with a front draped across the region, allowing for enhanced rainfall.
Drier air will begin to work into most of Texas on Tuesday thanks to the intrusion of the Saharan Air Layer coming all the way from Africa. This dry air will suppress any showers or storms that attempt to develop. That will not be the case to the north, however, with widespread, heavy thunderstorms in the forecast across the central Plains and Mid-Misssippi River Valley. States like Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas look to be the most active in terms of the wet weather, thus also having the greatest flood risk.
By Wednesday, the center of the weak low pressure will track into the Midwest, allowing for scattered showers and storms to fall in parts of the region. The best chance for rain will be in two separate areas: along the warm front near the southern Great Lakes and ahead of the cold front near the Mississippi River. There may even be a few isolated severe storms in addition to the risk for flooding.
The low pressure will continue to track to the north and east late-week, ushering in unsettled weather to the Northeast, which we will detail later this week.