Portions of the Plains and the Midwest will be at risk for severe weather midweek, particularly the risk for damaging winds and some small hail, but a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The environment will not be super favorable for the development of these severe storms, so the risk for storms of this magnitude is on the lower end with this new storm system.
On Tuesday, there is the risk for severe storms from southeastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota down through western Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Only a few severe storms are expected to develop, containing damaging winds as a portion of the jet stream moves through the warm sector of this storm. Due to the low instability in place, that will be one of the limiting favors in this setup. In terms of timing, a batch of rain with some embedded thunder is expected Tuesday morning over southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa. A few showers will also be found farther north and east while a few showers impact the Southern Plains. Then in the afternoon, this batch of rain will evolve into a more widespread area of rain in Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and eventually the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. In terms of the severe weather, the showers over the Central and Southern Plains will organize into a widespread line of rain and thunderstorms while moving east.
Then on Wednesday, the threat for severe weather will be slightly greater. That risk includes portions of the Midwest, centered over the western Ohio and Mid-Mississippi River Valleys. Again, damaging winds are the main threat but a tornado or two is possible. A line of rain and thunderstorms will move through this area during the morning hours, then will clear out in the afternoon. A few more scattered showers and storms may then develop late in the day, especially in the northern part of where the severe storms are possible. Farther north, it will be a rainy day in parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
By Thursday, the cold front will bring rain and some thunderstorms to the Appalachians, eastern Ohio River Valley, and interior Northeast. Some of this rain will be heavier where about up to an inch of rain may fall in some areas.