Our nor’easter will continue to impact portions of New England this Thursday as it slowly makes “landfall” as approximately a 990 millibar low pressure over eastern Maine Thursday evening. During the morning Thursday, a light to moderate snow will continue to fall across most of Massachusetts before ending for most in the afternoon while persisting throughout the day across Maine and much of Vermont and New Hampshire. Then in the evening, we mentioned the low will move onshore, and there is actually another piece of upper-level energy back toward the west over the eastern Great Lakes, which will pull that low inland into northern New England Thursday night into Friday while a new low pressure develops way off the Northeast coast. That will allow for the snow to continue for at least the first half of Thursday night in northern New England. That offshore low will then move toward the Canadian Maritimes Friday night, and that low will actually absorb what was our nor’easter over northern New England, therefore ending the snow there. If you couldn’t tell, it’s a complicated forecast.
Meanwhile with that upper-level low over the Great Lakes, this will fuel another round of snow for portions of the Northeast. On Thursday, a light to moderate snow is expected to fall in Upstate New York. This is associated with the warm, conveyor-belt of moisture while to the south of the low there are convective snow showers in the eastern Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Then into Lower Michigan, light snow showers are expected there on the backside of the low. By the evening hours, the low will work southeastward, bringing a moderate snow from the backside of our low pressure to eastern Ohio and western parts of Pennsylvania and New York.
Then into the overnight hours, the snow will become a bit widespread. A light to moderate snow is forecast across portions of the interior Northeast from Upstates New York through western New York, western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio, and portions of the Appalachians in West Virginia. A few light snow showers may even sneak themselves toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, so don’t be surprised if you see a brief period of snow between Washington, D.C. and New York City around the time of the Friday morning commute. Thankfully, up to a coating of snow — if any — is expected with those spotty snow showers.
As we get into Friday, the snow activity will persist across similar areas. The widespread snow is forecast to continue from Upstate New York through western New York and Pennsylvania. Central New York is also expected to get into the snow, and even a few hours of snow are possible in the morning or midday hours in the Berkshires down into western Connecticut. It will then become a bit more spotty in the afternoon where we’ll actually see more convective snow showers that will produce moderate to heavy snow and lower visibilities for brief periods. Those snow showers can be expected across portions of New York into western Pennsylvania, but widely scattered showers are also possible in New England, especially the northern half. Some of this snow may even be lake-effect snow coming off from Lake Ontario because the lake actually isn’t frozen, based on MODIS satellite imagery to the left. On Lake Erie, however, there is some ice cover. Can you spot the large section of ice covering the eastern portion of the lake?
By the overnight hours of Friday, the activity will really wind down. Lake-effect snow is still possible in the Lake Ontario region while that secondary coastal low spreads its outer light snow bands in Maine. That snow will continue at times into Saturday for Maine.
Here’s our snowfall forecast through Saturday: