Thankfully, much of the East has had several days to dry out following the flooding rains about a week ago. Rivers are still running higher than normal from the Ohio Valley through the ArkLaTex region, and additional rain is on the way. This rain will be much more progressive and lighter, however, so additional flooding is not expected. This next round of rain is thanks to two different upper-level disturbances. There will be an upper-level low with a surface low beneath it, tracking from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes Sunday through Tuesday while a second disturbance tracks from the intermountain West through the Southeast. It is these two disturbances plus one from Canada that will lead to the development of another nor’easter for the Northeast on Wednesday, which we will detail in a separate post.
The activity with this next storm system will begin on Sunday as our surface low develops and tracks toward the Northern Plains while a cold front forms associated with this low. Relatively speaking, Sunday will be a pretty dry day. It’s not until Sunday night when the activity ramps up. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday from the Northern Plains and Minnesota southward through the ArkLaTex and eastern Southern Plains. We want to stress the word, scattered. The rain activity will be very spotty on Sunday and many areas will stay dry.
On Sunday night, the main event will begin as areas of moderate rain and thunderstorms form ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. There will be a large area of rain and possible thunderstorms that moves through the area between southern Minnesota and the Mid-Mississippi Valley while scattered thunderstorms affect portions of the eastern Central Plains and the ArkLaTex. There may also be isolated severe weather from the Omaha, Nebraska area southward through the ArkLaTex, which may contain small hail and damaging winds.
Then on Monday, the activity will continue to perk up and become more widespread. An area of rain and thunderstorms will continue Monday morning between southern Minnesota and the Mid-Mississippi Valley. A cold front will then push the wet weather east of the Mississippi River in the Midwest region by the afternoon. That will bring the rain and storms into the western Ohio Valley down into the Tennessee Valley while becoming more scattered in nature for the afternoon and evening. Further south and west, there may be a thin line of thunderstorms with gusty winds that tracks southeastward from the ArkLaTex through the Gulf Coast of Texas. There may also be some shower activity ahead of this line, especially along the Texas coast.
Overnight Monday, moderate rain and thunderstorms will stall out along the Texas Gulf Coast while the cold front quickly clears out the rain and thunderstorms as the night progresses from east of the Mississippi River, including the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This cold front will also spark the development of showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast from Louisiana through North Georgia.
As we get into Tuesday, the cold front will approach the East Coast. A few rain and snow showers are possible in the eastern Ohio Valley and interior Northeast due to the weakening of the surface low over the Great Lakes and drier air. Meanwhile to the south, our disturbance from the intermountain West will allow for the wet weather to continue. Moderate to heavy rain showers are expected from the Carolinas through the Gulf Coast, although the rain should clear out of all of Louisiana and Texas by the afternoon.
By Tuesday night, the energy will move offshore as the nor’easter develops. Rain is possible early along the Carolina coast while showers and thunderstorms move down into the Florida Peninsula. Here’s how much precipitation you can expect through this time period: