This weekend, we’ll be keeping an eye on a new disturbance that will track across the Eastern U.S. and around a dome of high pressure over the Southeast. On Saturday, the focus will be on the Texas. Rain will begin to develop by the afternoon across south-central Texas as the low pressure forms. That rain will become more widespread as the evening approaches while moisture gets thrown into the system from the Gulf of Mexico. This rain will move north, expanding into all of eastern and central Texas. Then the rain will move towards Oklahoma and western Arkansas in the evening hours. At this time, the storm will be much more expansive and will begin to turn to the northeast as it rides the high pressure to the south and the east.
Overnight, rain will work into eastern Nebraska, all of Arkansas, Missouri, western Louisiana, western portions of Mississippi, Tennessee, and Kentucky. A few showers are also possible in southeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa.
Then on Sunday, moisture will flow in from the Gulf of Mexico into the Southeast. There is the marginal risk for a few strong to severe thunderstorms in eastern Louisiana, including New Orleans, and possibly southern Mississippi. For other areas, it will be rain. Those areas include southern Iowa, all of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, northern Mississippi, and the southern portion of Lower Michigan. The chance for rain also exists in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey. Scattered showers defined as hit or miss variety are possible for portions of North Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia on Sunday.
Some cold air may work into the northern extent of the precipitation on Sunday, so there is the chance for some snow and/or mixed precipitation for central Iowa into southern Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. If any snow falls, totals will be very minor.
Then on Sunday night, most of the precipitation shifts into the Northeast, including the big cities like New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C.. There are some questions at this point in time in terms of whether it will be rain or snow in the air. We’re currently thinking it will be rain for the Mid-Atlantic and light snow for much of New England, New York, and northern Pennsylvania on Sunday night.
Warmer air is then expected to creep further to the north, leading to a changeover to rain showers in Southern New England and portions of New York. Northern New England will stay tucked away in the cold, making for a snowy situation. Yet for the most part, snow should be fairly light.
Precipitation (rain and snow) totals will be mostly light, although portions of eastern Texas through Alabama may experience over an inch of rain through Sunday.