An area of enhanced convection over the southern Mid-Atlantic near a warm front associated with a storm system centered over the Midwest will move offshore on Wednesday. Some of the model guidance suggests these thunderstorms will organize and quickly become a tropical or subtropical cyclone later this week off the East Coast.
The National Hurricane Center is now watching this area for potential tropical development as well, hatching in an area off the Mid-Atlantic coast in their 8am EDT Tuesday outlook. Their current predictions suggests only a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days, but based on the model guidance the past few days, we have reason to believe those chances are higher.
The 06z run of the GFS Tuesday morning, a model known for its rampant tropical cyclone genesis and ‘bogus canes,’ actually does not show the formation of a low pressure, but instead shows thunderstorms moving offshore and eventually being carried quickly out to sea by an approaching cold front on Thursday.
Then there’s the European model that has shown a developing low pressure consistently since this past weekend. In fact, about 90 percent of the ECMWF’s 50 ensemble members develop a low pressure or a tropical cyclone, and about half suggest the potential storm strengthens into a tropical storm (sustained winds of at least 39 mph).
Even if this storm gets a name, which would be Beryl, there won’t be much impact to the United States. The convection associated with this area of distanced weather will bring showers and thunderstorms to parts of North Carolina and Virginia Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but then the thunderstorms will quickly move offshore, traveling to the north and east as it gets picked up by an approaching cold front. The indirect threat of an elevated rip current risk and rougher seas will be the main threats associated with this potential tropical cyclone, so no need to worry about this one.