An unsettled weekend is in store for the Northeast this weekend as an upper-level trough slowly passes through the region. The cold front on the leading edge of this trough will lead to showers, and then the upper-level low associated with this trough may bring showers Sunday into Monday. Because the air is well below freezing, which is almost unprecedented for this time of the year, even some snow showers are possible for parts of the interior Northeast.
On Saturday, a few showers will be affecting the area surrounding Lake Erie as well as Upstate New York during the morning. Most of these showers will be light. Then into the afternoon, the rain showers will evolve into a broken line of showers and isolated thunderstorms, spanning from western New York through the leeward side of the central Appalachian Mountains in western Virginia. Overnight Saturday, the line of showers ahead of the cold front will move east, thus bringing showers to the I-95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic during the evening, then to New England during the wee hours of Sunday morning.
Speaking of Sunday morning, the upper-level low will cause this cold front to stall and for the line of showers to pivot to the north. Therefore during this time period, rain showers are expected across much of New England, especially away from the coast, as well as in eastern New York. Snow showers are even possible along the lakefront of Lake Erie and in the higher elevations of western and Upstate New York. In the afternoon, the story will be fairly similar. Showers will continue to impact northern New England and Upstate New York while snow affects the Adirondacks, Catskills, and areas near the northern Pennsylvania border. Thankfully, it will be too warm for accumulation in most areas, but some heavier bursts of snow can be expected. Even an inch or two of accumulation is possible in the Adirondacks and Catskills. Sunday night, rain showers will swing into Maine while a line of rain and snow showers on the backside of the low pressure impact the area from western New York through the Lower-Hudson River Valley and northern New Jersey.
By Monday, the activity will begin to wane but a few scattered rain showers can still be expected in the Northeast, particularly in New England. Then starting Tuesday, warmer air and sunnier weather will invade.