Rounds of developing areas of low pressure over the Central and Southern Plains will be responsible for keeping the risk for severe weather present across the region through at least this weekend. The combination of heat, moisture, instability, and wind shear will aid in that threat for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes.
This Friday morning, there’s an area of thunderstorms moving east across Oklahoma, but will ultimately dissipate midday. Then in the afternoon, lee-side cyclogenesis will occur as an area of low pressure forms while a shortwave trough moves through the Rocky Mountains then the Plains. This will be the trigger of this afternoon and evening’s thunderstorms. Scattered storms will form at around noon on the leeward side of the Colorado and Wyoming Rocky Mountains. Then as the afternoon progresses, multiple lines of storms to severe storms will form across the Central Plains while tracking east. There will also be numerous hit or miss thunderstorms that form in parts of the northwestern US and Northern Plains, but these storms are not expected to turn severe. Then overnight, these storms may form into a MCS, or mesoscale convective system somewhere over Oklahoma. This complex will weaken by daybreak Saturday morning, but showers and storms can still be expected in the ArkLaTex region before this complex weakens midday Saturday. The main risks associated with Friday’s storms will be damaging winds and large hail as well as a few tornadoes. The best risk for severe storms will be east of the Rockies and across the western Central Plains.
On Saturday, the severe weather threat will drift to the east, targeting parts of the Southern Plains, ArkLaTex, and western Ohio River Valley. Nonetheless, the severe weather risk is there, especially in the afternoon and evening when scattered thunderstorms develops. There are some questions in regards to how widespread the convection becomes because that depends on when the morning MCS dissipates over the ArkLaTex. The longer it takes to deform, the harder it will take for the atmosphere to destabilize and become conducive for storms to fire up.
By Sunday, a new low pressure will form by the Rocky Mountains, which will bring a new round of strong to severe thunderstorms to a similar region as on Friday. There may even be a severe weather outbreak that occurs on Sunday. The highest risk for severe weather this time around will be in Kansas. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible. Showers and storms will be possible in the morning across parts of Wyoming and Nebraska. Then in the afternoon, scattered storms will develop across the region, traveling in an eastward direction. These storms will remain intense through the first half of Sunday night before weakening then dissipating.
The rainfall forecasts are difficult with these convective events, so while some locations will receive little to perhaps no rain at all this weekend, some locations will receive several inches. Localized flooding will be possible.